You really don't need a forensics expert to see what went wrong with the seasons of the three dearly departed clubs at the bottom of the J1 table. Vissel and Gamba go down as the best two relegation sides in the modern 18 team single table format, while Consadole stake their claim as the worst team in J1 history. This was the year that saw 40 become the new 38 and traditional powers such as Kashima and Jubilo sweating out the drop until the last couple of weeks.
Time to examine the bodies of 2012
16. Vissel Kobe
Cause of Death- Negligent Homicide due to lack of leadership.
After an erratic start and a seemingly smooth transition to highly regarded former Gamba head Akira Nishino, the bottom dropped out of Kobe's season. Part of the problem was due to a rash of injuries around October, with centerback duo Kitamoto and Inoha missing time as well as strike team Tashiro and Okubo. After a 4-2 win at Consadole, Kobe managed only one win in their last 12 (a meager 7 points picked up over 3 and a half months). The high priced Nishino got handed his walking papers with 3 games left to play and the squad fell on the last day after going virtually the whole season out of the relegation area.
High profile signings such as Inoha, Tashiro and Nozawa failed to bring their leadership secrets from Kashima and nobody stepped up. Longtime ace and captain Yoshihito Okubo embodied the failings of the team, managing to avoid the back of the net in the last 13 games of the season. It seemed odd at the time to keep the armband on a guy who two years ago was openly questioning whether or not he was coming back to the squad during a relegation struggle. Seems more odd now.
Some high profile players like Hashimoto, Soma, and Tashiro have already announced they will help Kobe try and regain their top flight status, while others like Inoha and Okubo look likely to leave as fast as they can. The big problem with Kobe lies with their main patron, Rakuten owner and serial meddler Mikitani, who seems to undermine the squad at the most inopportune moments. It will be interesting to see how much he is willing to spend on a J2 squad.
How 16th place squads have fared later in life- Suprisingly great. 2005 Kashiwa managed to come back after one year and finish 8th. The next year, they managed a runner-up finish in Tennohai. 2006 Avispa was and is awful. 2007 Sanfrecce started a run of successful 16th place alumni. They finished 4th in 2009, stayed in the top half of the table for 5 years, and finally claimed a J1 title. Sanfrecce is the second former 16th place squad to win the main J1 prize, joining last years champs Kashiwa Reysol.
Not to be completely outdone, 2008's 16th place squad Jubilo Iwata won the Nabisco Cup in 2010. 2010's 16th place finisher managed the "prestigious" double in the form of the J2 title (or 19th place as I like to call it) and an unlikely Emperor's Cup win over fellow J2 squad Kyoto Sanga.
17. Gamba Osaka
Cause of Death- Asphyxiation due to a smothering of goals
Gamba managed only four shutouts the entire year and two wins by a one goal margin. The team got relegated despite the fact that they led the league in goals as well as finishing with a positive goal differential. Had the team managed to finish at 16th place Cerezo's mark of 53 goals, we probably would be talking about Gamba as an ACL team and not a J2 team. 21 of Gamba's 34 games ended in either a tie (11 times) or a 1 goal loss (10 times). One word- Fujigaya. The erstwhile keeper from Shizuoka was the main culprit in a leaky back line that appeared sieve-like when games were on the line. Last year, when they were among the worst defenses in the league, they did little in the offseason to address the problem. During the mid-season transfer window, they opted for offensive firepower and paid for it in the end.
How 17th place squads fared later in life- Since 2005, it's been a fairly bleak picture. Verdy managed to come back after two years, only to see team management blow up the squad a week before the 2008 finale. They slumped to 17th and still remain in J2. Cerezo took 3 years to get back but came in blazing, managing to earn an ACL spot. The last two years have seen the squad selling key young pieces to Europe and bottom table finishes. Ventforet Kofu took 2 years to get back to J1 before promptly turning around and heading back to J2. Oita imploded financially in 2009. It took 3 years for them to get their checkbook balanced and their team in order for another shot at top flight football. Kyoto Sanga, whose 19 points gives them the title of worst 17th place squad, still is trying to get back into J1. Avispa Fukuoka was a disaster last year, finishing just above Kataller Toyama, FC Gifu, and Gainare Tottori.
18. Consadole Sapporo
Cause of Death- Blunt trauma of not being good enough to compete
Some of the Northern Kingdom's problem could be blamed on injuries, but let's be honest.....Consadole just wasn't good enough to compete. When you have a 45 year old striker on your roster and the epitomy of journeyman in the form of Kazunari Okayama, you know you are in trouble. That being said, I still would argue that the team would not have been historically bad (records for futility in losses (28), points (14), goals against (88) and goal differential (-63). ) had goalkeeper Lee Ho Seung not gone down with injury in late May. In 15 games, Lee managed to keep his team competitive, never letting up more than 3 goals while facing a barrage of shots, including a 2-1 Nabisco cup loss to Kashima in which the team was outshot 35-1 . Consadole's buffet of tainted keepers after Lee's injury managed to let in 4 or more goals in 10 of the final 24 league matches. The loss of Lee changed the team from weak to embarassing.
Life after hitting rock bottom- 2005 Vissel Kobe managed one 9th place finish in their 6 years of J1 survival before getting relegated this year. 2006 Kyoto Sanga came back in 2008 and managed to stay up until 2010. Yokohama FC managed to get to the promotion playoffs after a bunch of non-descript years. Consadole you know about. After a miracle 15th place finish in 2008, JEF managed to hit bottom. As of today, they are still looking for a manager. Shonan Bellmare managed a shock 2nd place finish and hope that 2013 J1 is a little more forgiving than 2010. Montedio Yamagata faded after a strong start.
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Saturday, November 24, 2012
The Last Visit of 2012
Next week Relegationistan closes it borders for 3 months and waits for a new season to begin. Meanwhile 4 teams remain in the boggy bottom. As a fan of a team who seems to be around here every year and managed to seal safety let me say first off to fans of Cerezo, Vissel, Gamba, and Albirex you have my sympathies.
On the one hand, I want to be happy that it isn't my team going down but I realize that it is a miserable situation to not know your fate, and even worse to get relegated. I am rooting for Albirex to pull through due to the fact that two of my favorite former Ardija players suit up for Niigata, but I'm not going to be that overjoyed if Vissel, Cerezo, or Gamba go down. All four clubs have likeable and valuable qualities and it's going to be a shame to see any of them go down. Part of me thinks that all four are probably better than the three newly promoted teams and that this year, with an incredibly small difference between 3rd and 17th, was a particularly harsh one.
That being said, I was hoping Kashima would go down. I mean, they don't have a J2 title yet, I think they deserve the chance to get one. Am I right?
On to the final four
14. Cerezo Osaka- After a nice 6 game unbeaten streak which seemingly put Pink Osaka into safety, the team has followed up with back to back blowout losses to Omiya and Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The team took a blow late in the first half when U-23 midfielder Hotaru Yamaguchi picked up a red card on a challenge in the box. He joins injured sideback Yusuke Maruhashi on the bench for Cerezo. The bad news is that they finish up against Kawasaki Frontale, a team who managed to find their form in recent weeks. Kawasaki is currently on a 3 game win streak after looking rudderless in October.
Safety permutations- Cerezo need to tie. They are in the best shape with 41 points. However, if Kobe wins and Gamba gets all 3 points, Cerezo goes down to J2 with a loss and worse goal differential. Their two recent blowouts put them at a minus 6.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2010 FC Tokyo. FC Tokyo went into the last game of the season controlling their own destiny. A very bad Kyoto Sanga team with nothing to play for did the unthinkable and upset FC Tokyo on the final day, sealing their fate in J2. While not exactly the same, Cerezo does sit in a position where they control their destiny and could be upset by a side with nothing major to play for.
15. Vissel Kobe- After a one week respite in a torrential downpour saw Vissel get off their 9 game winless slide, Hideo Tanaka picked up an early second yellow card, giving Kashiwa just enough advantage to win. Vissel are a mess after a very positive 2011 and an ambitious off-season in which the team looked to challenge for an ACL spot. The good news is that they play at home against the newly crowned J1 champions Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who hava absolutely nothing to play for. Ken Tokura comes back after a one game mandatory rest for yellow cards. The bad news is that they currently are the third worst home squad in the J League and host a team who sits tied for 1st in road record.
Safety Permutations- The easiest way for them to get through is with a win. It's pretty straightforward. If they tie, they need Gamba and Albirex not to win. Gamba has a straightforward goal differential advantage and Albirex is tied with Vissel (minus 8). If they lose and Gamba gets a tie, Vissel goes down.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2007 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Sanfrecce had a pretty decent lead over a very bad Omiya Ardija side in 2007 but imploded with internal strife and factionalism between older and younger players. They were talented, but started losing and couldn't figure out how to snap out of it. rumors out of Vissel was that the chemistry between departed coach Akira Nishino and the team were getting toxic. The good news is, 5 years later Sanfrecce won a J1 title. Puppies and rainbows for everybody!
16. Gamba Osaka- This would be an historic relegation on a few levels. Gamba currently has a plus 3 goal differential and lead the league in goals scored. They also would be the first J League ACL participant to be relegated in the same season in which they represented the league (Verdy were relegated and then entered the ACL as the 2004 Emperor Cup holders). After a torrid start, Al Sadd rental Leandro has cooled off a bit. The team is 6-7-1 in his 14 appearances. Fellow midseason pickup Akihiro Ienaga has been heating up at the right time, picking up a brace in yesterdays 2-2 draw to FC Tokyo. Gamba's main problem all season has been defensive woes. Gamba goes into their final game with a patchwork right side combination of Takuya Takei and out of shape Sota Nakazawa in front of seldomly dependable Yosuke Fujigaya. It's going to take a herculean effort from all three and results from their rivals to break their way in order for the former ACL holders to come out victorious. Gamba has a good news/bad news situtation when they head up to Shizuoka to face Jubilo Iwata. Iwata are among the better home sides in the J League but have recently seen their form bottom out. they currently sit on an 8 game winless streak and have lost 6 of their past 8.
Safety Permutations- A win combined with a loss by Cerezo or a loss or tie by Vissel would see Gamba through. Gamba can also go through with a tie if Vissel loses and Albirex ties or loses. they are done with a loss. They have a superior goal differential to everyone else in the group so that could come in handy.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2005 Tokyo Verdy 1969. The current Gamba incarnation was nowhere near the hot mess that the 2005 Verdy squad trotted out to the field, but there are some similarities. Verdy had a lot of good playmaking mids surrounding a talismanic Brazilian goal machine (the eponymous Washington) and a porous backline who failed to help out a very limited keeper. Verdy started out 2005 winning the Emperors Cup and the Xerox Cup and also had an epically nasty 3-0 victory against Real Madrid.
17. Albirex Niigata- Niigata held on to their very slim hopes by beating Vegalta Sendai 1-0 in Sendai. Not only did the team survive another week, they effectively ended the title hopes of Sendai. The victory came at a small cost however, as the teams second leading scorer Michel will miss the final game with yellow card accumulation. Their final game is a matchup of the leagues worst road team against the second worst home team as league worst Consadole Sapporo look to steal one last win before heading down to J2. A couple of things are going in Albirex favor in this one. Consadole are the leagues worst offense and defense. Albirex has the best defense in the league in terms of goals allowed. Albirex has a woeful scoring output of 25 goals, but face a team who has allowed 84 goals this season. Consadole has a big thing to play for.......if they lose or tie, they will go down with the worst point total in the single table era with 14. (Yokohama FC and Shonan hold the record for ineptitude with 16).
Safety Permutations- Win and hope Kobe and Gamba don't. Albirex is the team that needs the most help in the last day of the season.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2009 JEF Chiba Ichihara. You're saying to yourself, hey...didn't that team survive? Yes they did. Part of the reason I chose them is because everybody has been burying Albirex since Higashiguchi went down with his injury and they've done well to stay alive. I also mention them because like Chiba in 2008 and 2009, they've been hemmoraghing talent for a couple of years and started off their season with a bad coach and a horrible string of results. It kind of serves as a cautionary tale for teams sitting in 15th place. Remember, it ain't over until the guy in the bright shirt with the beady eyes and the whistle says it's over.
Here's to a good final day and best of luck to my friend Kaz at OrangeBlue, the fantastically fantastic Ben Mabley at the J League minutecast, Alan Gibson from J Soccer Magazine (who might net the double relegation if things go right......or wrong), La Famiglia De Kobe, and the pink and purple side of Osaka. I don't eny you one bit.
On the one hand, I want to be happy that it isn't my team going down but I realize that it is a miserable situation to not know your fate, and even worse to get relegated. I am rooting for Albirex to pull through due to the fact that two of my favorite former Ardija players suit up for Niigata, but I'm not going to be that overjoyed if Vissel, Cerezo, or Gamba go down. All four clubs have likeable and valuable qualities and it's going to be a shame to see any of them go down. Part of me thinks that all four are probably better than the three newly promoted teams and that this year, with an incredibly small difference between 3rd and 17th, was a particularly harsh one.
That being said, I was hoping Kashima would go down. I mean, they don't have a J2 title yet, I think they deserve the chance to get one. Am I right?
On to the final four
14. Cerezo Osaka- After a nice 6 game unbeaten streak which seemingly put Pink Osaka into safety, the team has followed up with back to back blowout losses to Omiya and Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The team took a blow late in the first half when U-23 midfielder Hotaru Yamaguchi picked up a red card on a challenge in the box. He joins injured sideback Yusuke Maruhashi on the bench for Cerezo. The bad news is that they finish up against Kawasaki Frontale, a team who managed to find their form in recent weeks. Kawasaki is currently on a 3 game win streak after looking rudderless in October.
Safety permutations- Cerezo need to tie. They are in the best shape with 41 points. However, if Kobe wins and Gamba gets all 3 points, Cerezo goes down to J2 with a loss and worse goal differential. Their two recent blowouts put them at a minus 6.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2010 FC Tokyo. FC Tokyo went into the last game of the season controlling their own destiny. A very bad Kyoto Sanga team with nothing to play for did the unthinkable and upset FC Tokyo on the final day, sealing their fate in J2. While not exactly the same, Cerezo does sit in a position where they control their destiny and could be upset by a side with nothing major to play for.
15. Vissel Kobe- After a one week respite in a torrential downpour saw Vissel get off their 9 game winless slide, Hideo Tanaka picked up an early second yellow card, giving Kashiwa just enough advantage to win. Vissel are a mess after a very positive 2011 and an ambitious off-season in which the team looked to challenge for an ACL spot. The good news is that they play at home against the newly crowned J1 champions Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who hava absolutely nothing to play for. Ken Tokura comes back after a one game mandatory rest for yellow cards. The bad news is that they currently are the third worst home squad in the J League and host a team who sits tied for 1st in road record.
Safety Permutations- The easiest way for them to get through is with a win. It's pretty straightforward. If they tie, they need Gamba and Albirex not to win. Gamba has a straightforward goal differential advantage and Albirex is tied with Vissel (minus 8). If they lose and Gamba gets a tie, Vissel goes down.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2007 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Sanfrecce had a pretty decent lead over a very bad Omiya Ardija side in 2007 but imploded with internal strife and factionalism between older and younger players. They were talented, but started losing and couldn't figure out how to snap out of it. rumors out of Vissel was that the chemistry between departed coach Akira Nishino and the team were getting toxic. The good news is, 5 years later Sanfrecce won a J1 title. Puppies and rainbows for everybody!
16. Gamba Osaka- This would be an historic relegation on a few levels. Gamba currently has a plus 3 goal differential and lead the league in goals scored. They also would be the first J League ACL participant to be relegated in the same season in which they represented the league (Verdy were relegated and then entered the ACL as the 2004 Emperor Cup holders). After a torrid start, Al Sadd rental Leandro has cooled off a bit. The team is 6-7-1 in his 14 appearances. Fellow midseason pickup Akihiro Ienaga has been heating up at the right time, picking up a brace in yesterdays 2-2 draw to FC Tokyo. Gamba's main problem all season has been defensive woes. Gamba goes into their final game with a patchwork right side combination of Takuya Takei and out of shape Sota Nakazawa in front of seldomly dependable Yosuke Fujigaya. It's going to take a herculean effort from all three and results from their rivals to break their way in order for the former ACL holders to come out victorious. Gamba has a good news/bad news situtation when they head up to Shizuoka to face Jubilo Iwata. Iwata are among the better home sides in the J League but have recently seen their form bottom out. they currently sit on an 8 game winless streak and have lost 6 of their past 8.
Safety Permutations- A win combined with a loss by Cerezo or a loss or tie by Vissel would see Gamba through. Gamba can also go through with a tie if Vissel loses and Albirex ties or loses. they are done with a loss. They have a superior goal differential to everyone else in the group so that could come in handy.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2005 Tokyo Verdy 1969. The current Gamba incarnation was nowhere near the hot mess that the 2005 Verdy squad trotted out to the field, but there are some similarities. Verdy had a lot of good playmaking mids surrounding a talismanic Brazilian goal machine (the eponymous Washington) and a porous backline who failed to help out a very limited keeper. Verdy started out 2005 winning the Emperors Cup and the Xerox Cup and also had an epically nasty 3-0 victory against Real Madrid.
17. Albirex Niigata- Niigata held on to their very slim hopes by beating Vegalta Sendai 1-0 in Sendai. Not only did the team survive another week, they effectively ended the title hopes of Sendai. The victory came at a small cost however, as the teams second leading scorer Michel will miss the final game with yellow card accumulation. Their final game is a matchup of the leagues worst road team against the second worst home team as league worst Consadole Sapporo look to steal one last win before heading down to J2. A couple of things are going in Albirex favor in this one. Consadole are the leagues worst offense and defense. Albirex has the best defense in the league in terms of goals allowed. Albirex has a woeful scoring output of 25 goals, but face a team who has allowed 84 goals this season. Consadole has a big thing to play for.......if they lose or tie, they will go down with the worst point total in the single table era with 14. (Yokohama FC and Shonan hold the record for ineptitude with 16).
Safety Permutations- Win and hope Kobe and Gamba don't. Albirex is the team that needs the most help in the last day of the season.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2009 JEF Chiba Ichihara. You're saying to yourself, hey...didn't that team survive? Yes they did. Part of the reason I chose them is because everybody has been burying Albirex since Higashiguchi went down with his injury and they've done well to stay alive. I also mention them because like Chiba in 2008 and 2009, they've been hemmoraghing talent for a couple of years and started off their season with a bad coach and a horrible string of results. It kind of serves as a cautionary tale for teams sitting in 15th place. Remember, it ain't over until the guy in the bright shirt with the beady eyes and the whistle says it's over.
Here's to a good final day and best of luck to my friend Kaz at OrangeBlue, the fantastically fantastic Ben Mabley at the J League minutecast, Alan Gibson from J Soccer Magazine (who might net the double relegation if things go right......or wrong), La Famiglia De Kobe, and the pink and purple side of Osaka. I don't eny you one bit.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
5 Alive
Or 7 if you prefer. This week's slate of games did absolutely nothing to straighten out the race at the bottom, in fact it probably made it more muddied.
To wit......Consadole, who have been dead for awhile, officially died two weeks ago in Kawasaki. Since then, they pulled off a 2-1 upset in Urawa. Saturday, they ran up against a team that beat them earlier in the season 7-0. What do they do? Hold Kashima scoreless and stone them on a PK. 0-0 tie and Kashima finds itself back in the muck of Relegationistan.
Kawasaki, playing against 17th place Gamba Osaka and the leagues worst goalkeeper, could not hold out against the high scoring squad and fell 3-2. Have I mentioned that key players Endo and Konno both were in Europe for friendlies against France and Brazil and came back to play a full 90? Have I mentioned that Kazama's sons keep playing even though they aren't good? No? Congratulations, Kawasaki.....although you probably won't be relegated, you get a place back in Relegationistan.
Cerezo let FC Tokyo's bald Serbian supersub score in the 74th minute and settled for a draw. 39 points should be enough for Cerezo to stay alive, especially with a game against flatlining Urawa coming up next.
Shimizu went up against a struggling Vissel Kobe squad missing their two starting centerbacks and tied? Seriously? You take out Vegalta and Jubilo and only muster a tie against Vissel?
Finally, Omiya ,who had a big chance to put Albirex away for good, came out flat while playing for a tie, fell behind and then got back into the game. Late sub Daigo Watanabe had a golden chance and blew it. Omiya and Albirex pretty much find themseles in the same situation as when they kicked off.
How the releagtion picture could get more muddled is beyond me....and beyond the 7 teams involved obviously, but hey that's where we are
NEXT WEEK
Two of three teams technically safe from from relegation take on the pair from Osaka. Cerezo heads north to Saitama to take on Urawa in a formality for the pink side of Osaka. Cerezo saw their 3 game win streak snapped by FC tokyo at home last week but are still on a pretty healthy roll. Urawa has been going in the opposite direction, dropping 3 of their last 4 (including embarrassing home losses to Gamba and Consadole). Both teams have full squads for this one but I think Cerezo may be a little bit "fuller".
Gamba will be without Shu Kurata next week for their big encounter against league leader Sanfrecce. The flip side of Kawasaki not getting the job done is that Gamba really gutted out a result. Blue Osaka was led by an Akihiro Ienaga brace and a goal by left back Hiroki Fujiharu. When the teams met in Hiroshima, Sanfrecce came out victorious with a 4-1 result. With the pressure mounting on both squads, I imagine this game will be a much tighter affair.....watch out for Leandro and Hisato Sato, who both haven't scored in a couple of league games.
Albirex goes without U-23 centerback Daisuke Suzuki for their match against Sagan Tosu. Longtime backup Takaya Kurokawa did enough in Omiya to scrape a point. However, Yohei Toyoda might provide a more robust challenge to the Albirex defense in Niigata. This is a matchup of the second worst road team in the league against the second worst home side.
Kashima and Shimizu face off in a sneak peak at next month's Nabisco Cup battle. Shimizu will be missing young forward/wing Toshiyuki Takagi for this game. Shimizu (in spite of last weeks tie) seems to really want a top three spot and the ACL spot while Kashima is kind of in an in-between place in the standings. Will we see Jorginho go with a weakened lineup in order to save his guns for Tokyo, or do they go all out and hope no one gets carded or hurt? Past history says Kashima claims the cup, so Shimizu winning on Saturday seems like a fair swap.
The beginning of the Verdenik era in Omiya saw an unhappy 4-2 result against Noda line co-tenant Kashiwa Reysol. Han Jin Kwon got his first career J league goal for Kashiwa and looks to be more of a fixture in the lineup with the injury to Naoya Kondo. Leandro Domingues is probably more of a game time decision. Giving him rest maybe easier with two straight wins for Reysol in games without their dynamic midfield motor. Omiya comes into the game with a 6 game unbeaten streak.....unfortunately only two of those games were wins. Both teams have allowed 43 goals this season. However, Kashiwa has managed to find the back of the net much more frequently (51 to 29). Big Slovenian striker Novakovic missed Saturday's 2 pointer (downgraded from 6) for unknown reasons (backup keeper Ezumi also was out so I'm thinking maybe it was a cold and not a long temr problem). Daisuke Watabe filled in for Kazuhiro Murakami and had a bit of a rough start. Might be a tough ask to expect Omiya to get a result in Kashiwa.....however they managed it against a better side last year so who knows.
MATCH OF THE WEEK
Kawasaki versus Vissel- Both of these teams should be well and truly done with relegation shenanigans. Neither team has managed to figure out how to get out of their relatively modest surroundings. Kobe enters the game on a 7 game winless string and possibly missing Masahiko Inoha and Kunie Kitamoto as well as forwards Yoshito Okubo, Yuzo Tashiro and backup defender Lee Gwan Son. They did well to scrape a 1-1 tie in difficult Outsourcing stadium and must be considered a slight favorite against non-entity Kawasaki Frontale. Kazama's constant lineup changes and experimentation have destabilized the team....it probably doesn't matter at this point and in terms of long term prospects it is the more appropriate choice. So I guess congratulations are in order for Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo on your one goal victories over Frontale.
BIG WINNER OF THE WEEK- Gamba Osaka
Hats off to them. They got the job done when nobody else did this week. With FC Tokyo fading and Jubilo absolutely tanking down the stretch, the nightmare schedule looks a lot less scary.
BIG LOSER OF THE WEEK- Omiya Ardija
They failed to bury a wounded Albirex and put pressure on Vissel and Gamba on Saturday and now find themselves teetering between safety and 17th. While the defensive woes seem to be improving, Verdeniks lack of ideas on the offensive side still haunt the squad. If Novakovic is out, that means the team is dependent on Zlatan, who has been this years version of Rodrigo Pimpao.
Finally, YOUR DEAD OSAKA STREAK OF THE WEEK
Cerezo's three game come from behind victory streak seemed like the obvious choice. However Gamba gets the nod. When Shu Kurata picked up his 4th yellow of the season, it ended Gamba's 29 game streak of having all their players eligible for games. They managed to keep all their players on the field even with Endo,Sato, Paulinho, Kaji, and Niwa sitting on three yellows. Iwashita picked up his 9th card on Saturday (6 with Shimizu) and sits out for two games with his next yellow card.
Congrats to next year's first resident of Relegationistan- Ventforet Kofu, your 2012 J2 Champions!!!!
To wit......Consadole, who have been dead for awhile, officially died two weeks ago in Kawasaki. Since then, they pulled off a 2-1 upset in Urawa. Saturday, they ran up against a team that beat them earlier in the season 7-0. What do they do? Hold Kashima scoreless and stone them on a PK. 0-0 tie and Kashima finds itself back in the muck of Relegationistan.
Kawasaki, playing against 17th place Gamba Osaka and the leagues worst goalkeeper, could not hold out against the high scoring squad and fell 3-2. Have I mentioned that key players Endo and Konno both were in Europe for friendlies against France and Brazil and came back to play a full 90? Have I mentioned that Kazama's sons keep playing even though they aren't good? No? Congratulations, Kawasaki.....although you probably won't be relegated, you get a place back in Relegationistan.
Cerezo let FC Tokyo's bald Serbian supersub score in the 74th minute and settled for a draw. 39 points should be enough for Cerezo to stay alive, especially with a game against flatlining Urawa coming up next.
Shimizu went up against a struggling Vissel Kobe squad missing their two starting centerbacks and tied? Seriously? You take out Vegalta and Jubilo and only muster a tie against Vissel?
Finally, Omiya ,who had a big chance to put Albirex away for good, came out flat while playing for a tie, fell behind and then got back into the game. Late sub Daigo Watanabe had a golden chance and blew it. Omiya and Albirex pretty much find themseles in the same situation as when they kicked off.
How the releagtion picture could get more muddled is beyond me....and beyond the 7 teams involved obviously, but hey that's where we are
NEXT WEEK
Two of three teams technically safe from from relegation take on the pair from Osaka. Cerezo heads north to Saitama to take on Urawa in a formality for the pink side of Osaka. Cerezo saw their 3 game win streak snapped by FC tokyo at home last week but are still on a pretty healthy roll. Urawa has been going in the opposite direction, dropping 3 of their last 4 (including embarrassing home losses to Gamba and Consadole). Both teams have full squads for this one but I think Cerezo may be a little bit "fuller".
Gamba will be without Shu Kurata next week for their big encounter against league leader Sanfrecce. The flip side of Kawasaki not getting the job done is that Gamba really gutted out a result. Blue Osaka was led by an Akihiro Ienaga brace and a goal by left back Hiroki Fujiharu. When the teams met in Hiroshima, Sanfrecce came out victorious with a 4-1 result. With the pressure mounting on both squads, I imagine this game will be a much tighter affair.....watch out for Leandro and Hisato Sato, who both haven't scored in a couple of league games.
Albirex goes without U-23 centerback Daisuke Suzuki for their match against Sagan Tosu. Longtime backup Takaya Kurokawa did enough in Omiya to scrape a point. However, Yohei Toyoda might provide a more robust challenge to the Albirex defense in Niigata. This is a matchup of the second worst road team in the league against the second worst home side.
Kashima and Shimizu face off in a sneak peak at next month's Nabisco Cup battle. Shimizu will be missing young forward/wing Toshiyuki Takagi for this game. Shimizu (in spite of last weeks tie) seems to really want a top three spot and the ACL spot while Kashima is kind of in an in-between place in the standings. Will we see Jorginho go with a weakened lineup in order to save his guns for Tokyo, or do they go all out and hope no one gets carded or hurt? Past history says Kashima claims the cup, so Shimizu winning on Saturday seems like a fair swap.
The beginning of the Verdenik era in Omiya saw an unhappy 4-2 result against Noda line co-tenant Kashiwa Reysol. Han Jin Kwon got his first career J league goal for Kashiwa and looks to be more of a fixture in the lineup with the injury to Naoya Kondo. Leandro Domingues is probably more of a game time decision. Giving him rest maybe easier with two straight wins for Reysol in games without their dynamic midfield motor. Omiya comes into the game with a 6 game unbeaten streak.....unfortunately only two of those games were wins. Both teams have allowed 43 goals this season. However, Kashiwa has managed to find the back of the net much more frequently (51 to 29). Big Slovenian striker Novakovic missed Saturday's 2 pointer (downgraded from 6) for unknown reasons (backup keeper Ezumi also was out so I'm thinking maybe it was a cold and not a long temr problem). Daisuke Watabe filled in for Kazuhiro Murakami and had a bit of a rough start. Might be a tough ask to expect Omiya to get a result in Kashiwa.....however they managed it against a better side last year so who knows.
MATCH OF THE WEEK
Kawasaki versus Vissel- Both of these teams should be well and truly done with relegation shenanigans. Neither team has managed to figure out how to get out of their relatively modest surroundings. Kobe enters the game on a 7 game winless string and possibly missing Masahiko Inoha and Kunie Kitamoto as well as forwards Yoshito Okubo, Yuzo Tashiro and backup defender Lee Gwan Son. They did well to scrape a 1-1 tie in difficult Outsourcing stadium and must be considered a slight favorite against non-entity Kawasaki Frontale. Kazama's constant lineup changes and experimentation have destabilized the team....it probably doesn't matter at this point and in terms of long term prospects it is the more appropriate choice. So I guess congratulations are in order for Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo on your one goal victories over Frontale.
BIG WINNER OF THE WEEK- Gamba Osaka
Hats off to them. They got the job done when nobody else did this week. With FC Tokyo fading and Jubilo absolutely tanking down the stretch, the nightmare schedule looks a lot less scary.
BIG LOSER OF THE WEEK- Omiya Ardija
They failed to bury a wounded Albirex and put pressure on Vissel and Gamba on Saturday and now find themselves teetering between safety and 17th. While the defensive woes seem to be improving, Verdeniks lack of ideas on the offensive side still haunt the squad. If Novakovic is out, that means the team is dependent on Zlatan, who has been this years version of Rodrigo Pimpao.
Finally, YOUR DEAD OSAKA STREAK OF THE WEEK
Cerezo's three game come from behind victory streak seemed like the obvious choice. However Gamba gets the nod. When Shu Kurata picked up his 4th yellow of the season, it ended Gamba's 29 game streak of having all their players eligible for games. They managed to keep all their players on the field even with Endo,Sato, Paulinho, Kaji, and Niwa sitting on three yellows. Iwashita picked up his 9th card on Saturday (6 with Shimizu) and sits out for two games with his next yellow card.
Congrats to next year's first resident of Relegationistan- Ventforet Kofu, your 2012 J2 Champions!!!!
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Clint Eastwood in Relegationistan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DGl-4gByV4
This week was a semi-off week for the relegation teams. However, there were some minor rumbles felt by all the teams in the cup week that was. Digging in-
12. Cerezo Osaka- Cerezo matched up on Wednesday against Montedio Yamagata and former teammate Branquinho. Another former Cerezo player, defender Kazuya Maeda, put Montedio up early in the second half. Cerezo would come back on goals by Olympian Kenyu Sugimoto and defender Kota Fujimoto.
THE GOOD- Getting Sugimoto back on the scoring track is a positive, especially since Mario Kempes does not seem to be the most reliable goal scorer in the league. The game also was Cerezo's fourth comeback victory in a row.
THE BAD- For the fifth game in a row, Cerezo allowed the opposition to stake a lead.
THE UGLY- That would actually go to Cerezo's opponent next week, FC Tokyo, who crashed out of the Nabisco Cup yesterday with a 3-0 loss to Shimizu S Pulse. This marks the second game that FC Tokyo has lost by 3 goals or more (both on the road). If FC Tokyo's mood is "ugly", Cerezo might be in for a long game. If FC Tokyo's form is "ugly", you might see Cerezo romp to an easy victory.
13. Kashima Antlers- Relegationistans big winner and busiest team. Kashima opted to go with a weaker lineup for their game against Gainare Tottori (only 2 of the starting 11 were starters for the Nabisco Cup Semifinal yesterday). Chikashi Masuda helped stake Kashima to an early lead before Tottori came back to force extra time. Shinzo Koroki got the game winner in the 110th minute to avoid a very embarrassing result.
Saturday saw the defending Nabisco Cup champs take on the defending J League champs in the second leg of the Nabisco Cup semifinals. Kashima quickly added to their 3-2 first leg lead with a goal from the white hot Dutra. Moments later, Yuya Osako would add one more. Jorge Wagner and Neto Baiano would grab goals back for the home side to make things nervous, but Kashima would hang on and book a trip for Tokyo on November 3rd.
THE GOOD- Dutra added to his goal streak with another early tally. It finally looks like the Brazilian midfielder is getting comfortable in Ibaraki after a tough start. Kashima also gambled on flaming out of Emperors Cup with a B team and won. Guys like Masuda and Koroki got on the score sheet and alot of reserves got a bit of a confidence boost.
THE BAD- Not so much bad as inconvenient but if things go bad for Kashima in the league, they are going to have to make a decision on going full bore in the Nabisco Cup final, or hedging and saving some guys for the matchup four days later against Omiya.
THE UGLY- Yuya Osako's pk miss and follow-up shot over the bar. Osako is doing alot of things right this year but finishing isn't one of them. Don't know if it's a fad or a long term mental problem but Osako needs to fix it fast. Combine him with Yuji Ono and you have the beginnings of a new generation of talented but mentally fragile target men. Not that that's new to Japan.
14. Vissel Kobe- Homes Stadium saw 615 people go through the gates for a PK thriller between JEF Chiba and the home side...Sagawa Shiga. Vissel unfortunately were training and not playing.
THE GOOD- Vissel had two weeks and plenty of match footage to go through to plan for next weeks opponent, Shimizu S Pulse.
THE BAD- If you go on the Vissel Kobe website, you'll see a banner for "One Heart" with pictures of Nishino and 5 players. Next week will see three of those players sitting out with yellow card accumulation (Kitamoto) or injuries (Okubo, Inoha). Add to that the off again-on again health issues of Yuzo Tashiro and you have a recipe for a very, very long 6 game stretch.
THE UGLY- Stories out of the tabloids earlier this month were saying that Masahiko Inoha was dealing with injuries before the call-up for the France game. He's now out for 3 weeks after picking up an injury in France, not helping his National Team chances and forcing Kobe to field a centerback pairing of Kazumichi Takagi and Lee Kwang Seon. I understand that playing a big country like France in France is a good prestige match for the National Team, but really Nishino and Zaccheroni need to use their heads in this situation and come to an agreement on backup National Team players not threatining their careers over the most meaningless of friendlies. In this case it cost the player and it might cost the club and Zac earned nothing from the move.
15. Omiya Ardija- If Kashima was the big winner of the week, Omiya gets a good second place spot with a successful Wednesday night victory over Avispa Fukuoka. Omiya started off the scoring in the 45th minute off a Yu Hasegawa goal in the middle of a Fukuoka pack. Zlatan doubled the scoring in the 54th minute with a sliding shot. Osmar would grab one back for Fukuoka in the 66th minute, but Novakovic would put the game away late with a rebound goal in the 87th minute.
THE GOOD- Including Fukuoka University, Omiya had a 4 game losing streak to Fukuoka teams, so the emotional relief of getting past Fukuoka has to be a positive. All three strikers for Omiya got on the board in this game after two straight games of scoreless ties. Daisuke Watabe was able to successfully slot in a right side back and made no huge errors in the game filling in for Kazuhiro Murakami. Finally, schedule congestion for Kashima gave the team a bit of an advantage for the November 7th game. At this time of year, any advantage counts....especially against a team they only have one career league win against.
THE BAD- It was bound to happen sooner or later, but Omiya's clean sheet streak came to an end on Wednesday. Goals happen but the way it ended has to be categorized as.....
THE UGLY- During the scoreless streak, Captain Kosuke Kikuchi has been very solid and has cut down the mental gaffes that plagued him for most of the year. The old Kosuke popped his head out in the 66th minute, when a very lacsadaisical pass combined with some hesitation from Kitano led to a hustling Osmar grabbing the lone goal for Avispa. If he learns from it, great...it's a positive. But if he does it again....ala the Sanfrecce game....Omiya has some worries going into the last 6 games.
16. Albirex Niigata- Albirex opted to go with one starter from their Vissel Kobe draw and a pack of bench players for their game against Fukushima United. Didn't go quite the way Albirex would have liked with Fukushima notching the lone goal of the night. On again/off again starter Naoya Kikuchi picked up a knock early in the game and is questionable for next weeks 6 pointer.
THE GOOD- Shimizu won their Nabisco Cup semifinal, so Albirex gets to face them on a short week and a possible cup hangover. That's a positive. Morishita also managed to get some time for his bench, especially backup keeper Hideaki Ozawa. Wouldn't seem important, but....
THE BAD- Masaaki Higashiguchi was rumored to be carted off the field during yesterday's training match between Niigata and Thespa Kustatsu's U-23. Albirex went 0-1-3 in the games Higashiguchi missed earlier in the year, so losing him for even a couple games would be a blow to Albirex survival hopes. Twitter feeds were saying the player doesn't think it's serious enough to jeopardize him for the Omiya game but we don't know for sure.
THE UGLY- Shoki Hirai and Kisho Yano had a chance to stake a claim to starting spots and failed miserably against a 4th division squad. The 22 goals (bolstered by a 5 goal outlier against Nagoya) should have Niigata worried. Losing wasn't the worst thing to happen on Wednesday.....not scoring was.
17. Gamba Osaka- Gamba opted for a hybrid method in their Wednesday match against Mito Hollyhock. Yasushi Endo and Yasuyuki Konno both were off to France for National Team shenanigans and Ienaga, Sato, and Fujigaya all took seats on the bench. Gamba was able to win with a familiar formula- get the ball to Leandro and get out of the way. Yohei Takeda managed to keep a clean sheet and gives Gamba something to think about for their game against Kawasaki.
THE GOOD- A win and a clean sheet are good confidence boosters, especially without your best midfielder and defender. Leandro gets back on the score sheet with his strike also restores a bit of invincibility lost last week at the hands of Sendai. Finally, both Konno and Endo represented themselves well after going a full 90 against France in the Samurai Blues 1-0 win. Endo tied the record for most caps as a National Team player. Congratulations.
THE BAD- Both players have one more midweek game to play against Brazil in Poland before coming back to Japan for the Frontale game. It's a lot of travel and alot of game time for two veterans who may not have a full tank after the cross-continental trip. Do you put them in the starting 11 and hope they can go a full 90, do you risk it and have them come off the bench, or do you save one or both of them and gamble on getting past a very mediocre Kawasaki side?
THE UGLY- What's going to happen if Fujigaya plays on Saturday and blows another game for the team. Takeda wasn't brilliant against Mito, but he did just enough to take the win. At this point in the year, should Gamba stay with arguably the worst keeper in J1 or throw out the untested Takeda? What's gonna be ugly is the fan reaction if the gamble does not pay off. Keeper controversies aren't good this time of year.
MORE EMPEROR'S CUP THOUGHTS
I'm all in on this year's Emperor's Cup, not least of which is because Omiya is still actually alive. However, I got a bone to pick with the schedulers. Midweek games are unavoidable and the upsets caused some really unfortunate attendance numbers. Machida Zelvia and FC Imabari got a grand total of 304 for their game in Hiroshima. Yokogawa Musashino and Nagano got 312 in Hokkaido. JEF and Sagawa Shiga got 615 in Kobe. Those are weird matchups in even weirder places so I don't have a problem with that.
The highest attendance on the night was a derby match between Yokohama F Marinos and Yokohama FC which saw a gate of 8862. Over double everything else on the night. Not bad.
The JFA in it's infinite wisdom, decided the 4th round should be a draw....no problem again but they opted to give home games to Omiya, Urawa, JEF, Kashiwa, Gamba, and Cerezo, while Jubilo, Shimizu, Kawasaki, and Yokohama all get road games. No derbies in the 4th round. Which also means no attendance in the 4th round. What's a more compelling game.....Jubilo-Shimizu or Jubilo-Omiya? Not a difficult question to answer. Are they doing this so that they can get a team who will undoubtably get to the ACL round of 16, lose and then spiral to 13th in the table next year? Stop screwing with the cup.......unless you are going to do it to benefit the competition.
DIRTY SIGNS IN YOKOHAMA
The moment of outrage in round 3 happened at the Nissan when Yokohama FC fans put up a large banner telling Marinos to go fuck themselves. I'm not that offended by it.....its rude but a little funny. I think they missed an opportunity to get creative. The whole GFY with the finger came across as Urawaesque, big on shock but not that creative. Had they put a picture of the Flugel mascot shoving his head up a seagulls poopshoot, then I'd be behind this 110 percent. It would have been a nice summary of the merger and the feeling of the Fulie. GFY wasn't elegant and it wasn't worth the outrage and fine it caused. If you are gonna go for shock......go all the way.
GAME OF THE WEEK- Gamba versus Kawasaki. There are two games on Gamba's schedule that are dead lock must win contests and Kawasaki is the first one. It's been detailed about the three positions that are up in the air for Gamba going into the match. What's not in question is Leandro. If he has a good game against a pretty average defense, Gamba probably rolls. A tie doesn't really help in this game considering that Omiya and Albirex face off in Omiya, especially if one of the orange relegation candidates wins. Time is runnning out for Gamba so this game is the big one. Especially with Sanfrecce coming into town next week.
VIVA TOYAMA!
This week was a semi-off week for the relegation teams. However, there were some minor rumbles felt by all the teams in the cup week that was. Digging in-
12. Cerezo Osaka- Cerezo matched up on Wednesday against Montedio Yamagata and former teammate Branquinho. Another former Cerezo player, defender Kazuya Maeda, put Montedio up early in the second half. Cerezo would come back on goals by Olympian Kenyu Sugimoto and defender Kota Fujimoto.
THE GOOD- Getting Sugimoto back on the scoring track is a positive, especially since Mario Kempes does not seem to be the most reliable goal scorer in the league. The game also was Cerezo's fourth comeback victory in a row.
THE BAD- For the fifth game in a row, Cerezo allowed the opposition to stake a lead.
THE UGLY- That would actually go to Cerezo's opponent next week, FC Tokyo, who crashed out of the Nabisco Cup yesterday with a 3-0 loss to Shimizu S Pulse. This marks the second game that FC Tokyo has lost by 3 goals or more (both on the road). If FC Tokyo's mood is "ugly", Cerezo might be in for a long game. If FC Tokyo's form is "ugly", you might see Cerezo romp to an easy victory.
13. Kashima Antlers- Relegationistans big winner and busiest team. Kashima opted to go with a weaker lineup for their game against Gainare Tottori (only 2 of the starting 11 were starters for the Nabisco Cup Semifinal yesterday). Chikashi Masuda helped stake Kashima to an early lead before Tottori came back to force extra time. Shinzo Koroki got the game winner in the 110th minute to avoid a very embarrassing result.
Saturday saw the defending Nabisco Cup champs take on the defending J League champs in the second leg of the Nabisco Cup semifinals. Kashima quickly added to their 3-2 first leg lead with a goal from the white hot Dutra. Moments later, Yuya Osako would add one more. Jorge Wagner and Neto Baiano would grab goals back for the home side to make things nervous, but Kashima would hang on and book a trip for Tokyo on November 3rd.
THE GOOD- Dutra added to his goal streak with another early tally. It finally looks like the Brazilian midfielder is getting comfortable in Ibaraki after a tough start. Kashima also gambled on flaming out of Emperors Cup with a B team and won. Guys like Masuda and Koroki got on the score sheet and alot of reserves got a bit of a confidence boost.
THE BAD- Not so much bad as inconvenient but if things go bad for Kashima in the league, they are going to have to make a decision on going full bore in the Nabisco Cup final, or hedging and saving some guys for the matchup four days later against Omiya.
THE UGLY- Yuya Osako's pk miss and follow-up shot over the bar. Osako is doing alot of things right this year but finishing isn't one of them. Don't know if it's a fad or a long term mental problem but Osako needs to fix it fast. Combine him with Yuji Ono and you have the beginnings of a new generation of talented but mentally fragile target men. Not that that's new to Japan.
14. Vissel Kobe- Homes Stadium saw 615 people go through the gates for a PK thriller between JEF Chiba and the home side...Sagawa Shiga. Vissel unfortunately were training and not playing.
THE GOOD- Vissel had two weeks and plenty of match footage to go through to plan for next weeks opponent, Shimizu S Pulse.
THE BAD- If you go on the Vissel Kobe website, you'll see a banner for "One Heart" with pictures of Nishino and 5 players. Next week will see three of those players sitting out with yellow card accumulation (Kitamoto) or injuries (Okubo, Inoha). Add to that the off again-on again health issues of Yuzo Tashiro and you have a recipe for a very, very long 6 game stretch.
THE UGLY- Stories out of the tabloids earlier this month were saying that Masahiko Inoha was dealing with injuries before the call-up for the France game. He's now out for 3 weeks after picking up an injury in France, not helping his National Team chances and forcing Kobe to field a centerback pairing of Kazumichi Takagi and Lee Kwang Seon. I understand that playing a big country like France in France is a good prestige match for the National Team, but really Nishino and Zaccheroni need to use their heads in this situation and come to an agreement on backup National Team players not threatining their careers over the most meaningless of friendlies. In this case it cost the player and it might cost the club and Zac earned nothing from the move.
15. Omiya Ardija- If Kashima was the big winner of the week, Omiya gets a good second place spot with a successful Wednesday night victory over Avispa Fukuoka. Omiya started off the scoring in the 45th minute off a Yu Hasegawa goal in the middle of a Fukuoka pack. Zlatan doubled the scoring in the 54th minute with a sliding shot. Osmar would grab one back for Fukuoka in the 66th minute, but Novakovic would put the game away late with a rebound goal in the 87th minute.
THE GOOD- Including Fukuoka University, Omiya had a 4 game losing streak to Fukuoka teams, so the emotional relief of getting past Fukuoka has to be a positive. All three strikers for Omiya got on the board in this game after two straight games of scoreless ties. Daisuke Watabe was able to successfully slot in a right side back and made no huge errors in the game filling in for Kazuhiro Murakami. Finally, schedule congestion for Kashima gave the team a bit of an advantage for the November 7th game. At this time of year, any advantage counts....especially against a team they only have one career league win against.
THE BAD- It was bound to happen sooner or later, but Omiya's clean sheet streak came to an end on Wednesday. Goals happen but the way it ended has to be categorized as.....
THE UGLY- During the scoreless streak, Captain Kosuke Kikuchi has been very solid and has cut down the mental gaffes that plagued him for most of the year. The old Kosuke popped his head out in the 66th minute, when a very lacsadaisical pass combined with some hesitation from Kitano led to a hustling Osmar grabbing the lone goal for Avispa. If he learns from it, great...it's a positive. But if he does it again....ala the Sanfrecce game....Omiya has some worries going into the last 6 games.
16. Albirex Niigata- Albirex opted to go with one starter from their Vissel Kobe draw and a pack of bench players for their game against Fukushima United. Didn't go quite the way Albirex would have liked with Fukushima notching the lone goal of the night. On again/off again starter Naoya Kikuchi picked up a knock early in the game and is questionable for next weeks 6 pointer.
THE GOOD- Shimizu won their Nabisco Cup semifinal, so Albirex gets to face them on a short week and a possible cup hangover. That's a positive. Morishita also managed to get some time for his bench, especially backup keeper Hideaki Ozawa. Wouldn't seem important, but....
THE BAD- Masaaki Higashiguchi was rumored to be carted off the field during yesterday's training match between Niigata and Thespa Kustatsu's U-23. Albirex went 0-1-3 in the games Higashiguchi missed earlier in the year, so losing him for even a couple games would be a blow to Albirex survival hopes. Twitter feeds were saying the player doesn't think it's serious enough to jeopardize him for the Omiya game but we don't know for sure.
THE UGLY- Shoki Hirai and Kisho Yano had a chance to stake a claim to starting spots and failed miserably against a 4th division squad. The 22 goals (bolstered by a 5 goal outlier against Nagoya) should have Niigata worried. Losing wasn't the worst thing to happen on Wednesday.....not scoring was.
17. Gamba Osaka- Gamba opted for a hybrid method in their Wednesday match against Mito Hollyhock. Yasushi Endo and Yasuyuki Konno both were off to France for National Team shenanigans and Ienaga, Sato, and Fujigaya all took seats on the bench. Gamba was able to win with a familiar formula- get the ball to Leandro and get out of the way. Yohei Takeda managed to keep a clean sheet and gives Gamba something to think about for their game against Kawasaki.
THE GOOD- A win and a clean sheet are good confidence boosters, especially without your best midfielder and defender. Leandro gets back on the score sheet with his strike also restores a bit of invincibility lost last week at the hands of Sendai. Finally, both Konno and Endo represented themselves well after going a full 90 against France in the Samurai Blues 1-0 win. Endo tied the record for most caps as a National Team player. Congratulations.
THE BAD- Both players have one more midweek game to play against Brazil in Poland before coming back to Japan for the Frontale game. It's a lot of travel and alot of game time for two veterans who may not have a full tank after the cross-continental trip. Do you put them in the starting 11 and hope they can go a full 90, do you risk it and have them come off the bench, or do you save one or both of them and gamble on getting past a very mediocre Kawasaki side?
THE UGLY- What's going to happen if Fujigaya plays on Saturday and blows another game for the team. Takeda wasn't brilliant against Mito, but he did just enough to take the win. At this point in the year, should Gamba stay with arguably the worst keeper in J1 or throw out the untested Takeda? What's gonna be ugly is the fan reaction if the gamble does not pay off. Keeper controversies aren't good this time of year.
MORE EMPEROR'S CUP THOUGHTS
I'm all in on this year's Emperor's Cup, not least of which is because Omiya is still actually alive. However, I got a bone to pick with the schedulers. Midweek games are unavoidable and the upsets caused some really unfortunate attendance numbers. Machida Zelvia and FC Imabari got a grand total of 304 for their game in Hiroshima. Yokogawa Musashino and Nagano got 312 in Hokkaido. JEF and Sagawa Shiga got 615 in Kobe. Those are weird matchups in even weirder places so I don't have a problem with that.
The highest attendance on the night was a derby match between Yokohama F Marinos and Yokohama FC which saw a gate of 8862. Over double everything else on the night. Not bad.
The JFA in it's infinite wisdom, decided the 4th round should be a draw....no problem again but they opted to give home games to Omiya, Urawa, JEF, Kashiwa, Gamba, and Cerezo, while Jubilo, Shimizu, Kawasaki, and Yokohama all get road games. No derbies in the 4th round. Which also means no attendance in the 4th round. What's a more compelling game.....Jubilo-Shimizu or Jubilo-Omiya? Not a difficult question to answer. Are they doing this so that they can get a team who will undoubtably get to the ACL round of 16, lose and then spiral to 13th in the table next year? Stop screwing with the cup.......unless you are going to do it to benefit the competition.
DIRTY SIGNS IN YOKOHAMA
The moment of outrage in round 3 happened at the Nissan when Yokohama FC fans put up a large banner telling Marinos to go fuck themselves. I'm not that offended by it.....its rude but a little funny. I think they missed an opportunity to get creative. The whole GFY with the finger came across as Urawaesque, big on shock but not that creative. Had they put a picture of the Flugel mascot shoving his head up a seagulls poopshoot, then I'd be behind this 110 percent. It would have been a nice summary of the merger and the feeling of the Fulie. GFY wasn't elegant and it wasn't worth the outrage and fine it caused. If you are gonna go for shock......go all the way.
GAME OF THE WEEK- Gamba versus Kawasaki. There are two games on Gamba's schedule that are dead lock must win contests and Kawasaki is the first one. It's been detailed about the three positions that are up in the air for Gamba going into the match. What's not in question is Leandro. If he has a good game against a pretty average defense, Gamba probably rolls. A tie doesn't really help in this game considering that Omiya and Albirex face off in Omiya, especially if one of the orange relegation candidates wins. Time is runnning out for Gamba so this game is the big one. Especially with Sanfrecce coming into town next week.
VIVA TOYAMA!
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Frogs in a pot
At the start of the week, we had 6 teams sitting in the murky, mucky water of Relegationistan. Two of these teams felt the water getting a little hot and have pretty decided that it's time to get out. I'm not sure it's time to call safe on Cerezo and Kashima but I'm getting close.
Here's the rundown
BIG WINNER OF THE WEEK- Kashima Antlers.
Kashima pulled off the unlikely (but increasingly more common) feat of putting up 5 goals on an opponent, this time in the shape of FC Tokyo. A hat trick administered by the unlikely foot of Junior Dutra was the catalyst for a rout. Cerezo may have more total points, but Kashima has the easier schedule, with games against Consadole and Omiya still on the schedule, as well as a gam against the corpse of Nagoya Grampus. Two of those games might be tricky though (I'll explain down below).
BIG LOSER OF THE WEEK- Albirex Niigata
Even though Gamba finds themselves in a more precarious position, Albirex missed the opportunity to pass up a direct rival and put pressure on their next opponent in week 29. By failing to beat Kobe, they let Omiya go into the break out of the relegation zone and with the option of letting Albirex force play while sitting back and waiting for the counter. I'm not saying that Albirex can't succeed this way, however considering the fact that they are league worst in scoring and like to steal wins through counterattacks, it makes the job that much tougher.
INTERNATIONAL INTERRUPTION
Everybody gets a brief respite for FIFA's designated international match days/money grab. Two teams in the bottom are directly affected with call-ups. Gamba Osaka send defensive anchor Yasuyuki Konno and frequent flier Yasuhito Endo for a global jaunt to France. Not the greatest thing for two very important veterans to fly to France during a good recovery time but hey it's your country. Luckily, Kawasaki operator Kengo Nakamura is also making the trip, so the advantage for Frontale is negligible.
Vissel Kobe sends a banged up Masahiko Inoha on the trip as well which is a risk considering Kazumichi Takagi and Lee Kwang Seon are the primary backups.
International break day also means cup competitions aplenty. Every team except Kobe have Emperor Cup matches on the 10th. Omiya hosts Fukuoka at magnificent Kumagaya in hopes of getting a bit of payback versus the J2 squad. Last year saw Fukuoka sweep the season series. The teams met in 2010 in a rainy midweek match in a controversial game. Fukuoka managed to eek out a win in PK's. Albirex plays host to Fukushima United, Gamba hosts Mito, and Cerezo takes on Yamagata in the Branquinho derby.
Kashima by far is the busiest of the Relegationistan residents. On Wednesday, Kashima plays host to Gainare Tottori, a team who has their own relegation worries (Lower Relegationistan?) and may opt to go with a reserve team considering they have away games against Toyama and Ehime sandwiching the midweek cup contest. Kashima might also go with the B squad because of a second leg semifinal match away at Kashiwa.
Cup games are tricky for a couple different reasons. First you get a mix of starters and reserves (in most cases) which leads to accidents in terms of injury and adjudication. If you've read my thoughts on Nabisco Cup (I hate it), you know that I have a real bone to pick with the policy of disqualifying players for league matches because of cup bookings. Kashima is the most handicapped by the cup congestion and faces a Consadole side who not only has nothing to lose, they have two full weeks to prepare for an upset.
The beneficiary of the cup schedule is Kobe, who were eliminated in round 2. Kobe has two full weeks to prepare for surging Shimizu S Pulse, who like Kashima, have midweek Emperor Cup competitions and a Saturday Nabisco Semifinal match against FC Tokyo.
If Kashima and Shimizu managed to upend their opponents, they go on to a finals match on the 3rd of November. This affects the relegation matchup because both Albirex and Omiya are the designated opponents in short schedule games on the 7th. If Kashima loses, it affects the race as well. Kashiwa faces off against Gamba on the 7th. FC Tokyo is the fourth team in the mix and faces Nagoya on the 7th.
Here's a chart
What Cerezo, Kashima, Vissel, and Omiya want for a Nabisco Cup final
Kashima versus FC Tokyo
What Albirex wants for a Nabisco Cup final
Kashima versus Shimizu
What Gamba wants for a Nabisco Cup final
Kashiwa versus FC Tokyo
GAME OF THE WEEK- Kashima versus Kashiwa It's slim pickings this week for games that affect relegation, so this is it. Kashima blasted FC Tokyo on Saturday, while Kashiwa eeked out a 1-0 win against Kawasaki. Both teams will be missing key players for the match. Kashiwa is without the midfield tandem of Ryoichi Kurisawa and Leandro Dominguez while Kashima goes without hardman Mitsuo Ogasawara. Kashima enters the away leg with a tenuous 3-2 advantage. Kashiwa only needs to win 1-0 to advance to the final with the two crucial goals picked up in Kashima.
OSAKA STREAK CORNER- With the 2-1 loss to Vegalta, Gamba's amazing 8 game unbeaten Leandro streak was finally laid to rest. It's unknown so far how the team reacts to losing their invincibility with the talismanic striker on the field. Another amazing streak held up when for the third week in a row, Cerezo Osaka came from behind twice to edge Sagan Tosu. Remarkably all three of their come from behind wins have been by 3-2 scorelines, two of which coming against top tier Shimizu and Sagan Tosu. Cerezo looks to extend the winning streak against FC Tokyo. Not sure if they care about the 3-2 scoreline.
Enjoy the bath
Here's the rundown
BIG WINNER OF THE WEEK- Kashima Antlers.
Kashima pulled off the unlikely (but increasingly more common) feat of putting up 5 goals on an opponent, this time in the shape of FC Tokyo. A hat trick administered by the unlikely foot of Junior Dutra was the catalyst for a rout. Cerezo may have more total points, but Kashima has the easier schedule, with games against Consadole and Omiya still on the schedule, as well as a gam against the corpse of Nagoya Grampus. Two of those games might be tricky though (I'll explain down below).
BIG LOSER OF THE WEEK- Albirex Niigata
Even though Gamba finds themselves in a more precarious position, Albirex missed the opportunity to pass up a direct rival and put pressure on their next opponent in week 29. By failing to beat Kobe, they let Omiya go into the break out of the relegation zone and with the option of letting Albirex force play while sitting back and waiting for the counter. I'm not saying that Albirex can't succeed this way, however considering the fact that they are league worst in scoring and like to steal wins through counterattacks, it makes the job that much tougher.
INTERNATIONAL INTERRUPTION
Everybody gets a brief respite for FIFA's designated international match days/money grab. Two teams in the bottom are directly affected with call-ups. Gamba Osaka send defensive anchor Yasuyuki Konno and frequent flier Yasuhito Endo for a global jaunt to France. Not the greatest thing for two very important veterans to fly to France during a good recovery time but hey it's your country. Luckily, Kawasaki operator Kengo Nakamura is also making the trip, so the advantage for Frontale is negligible.
Vissel Kobe sends a banged up Masahiko Inoha on the trip as well which is a risk considering Kazumichi Takagi and Lee Kwang Seon are the primary backups.
International break day also means cup competitions aplenty. Every team except Kobe have Emperor Cup matches on the 10th. Omiya hosts Fukuoka at magnificent Kumagaya in hopes of getting a bit of payback versus the J2 squad. Last year saw Fukuoka sweep the season series. The teams met in 2010 in a rainy midweek match in a controversial game. Fukuoka managed to eek out a win in PK's. Albirex plays host to Fukushima United, Gamba hosts Mito, and Cerezo takes on Yamagata in the Branquinho derby.
Kashima by far is the busiest of the Relegationistan residents. On Wednesday, Kashima plays host to Gainare Tottori, a team who has their own relegation worries (Lower Relegationistan?) and may opt to go with a reserve team considering they have away games against Toyama and Ehime sandwiching the midweek cup contest. Kashima might also go with the B squad because of a second leg semifinal match away at Kashiwa.
Cup games are tricky for a couple different reasons. First you get a mix of starters and reserves (in most cases) which leads to accidents in terms of injury and adjudication. If you've read my thoughts on Nabisco Cup (I hate it), you know that I have a real bone to pick with the policy of disqualifying players for league matches because of cup bookings. Kashima is the most handicapped by the cup congestion and faces a Consadole side who not only has nothing to lose, they have two full weeks to prepare for an upset.
The beneficiary of the cup schedule is Kobe, who were eliminated in round 2. Kobe has two full weeks to prepare for surging Shimizu S Pulse, who like Kashima, have midweek Emperor Cup competitions and a Saturday Nabisco Semifinal match against FC Tokyo.
If Kashima and Shimizu managed to upend their opponents, they go on to a finals match on the 3rd of November. This affects the relegation matchup because both Albirex and Omiya are the designated opponents in short schedule games on the 7th. If Kashima loses, it affects the race as well. Kashiwa faces off against Gamba on the 7th. FC Tokyo is the fourth team in the mix and faces Nagoya on the 7th.
Here's a chart
What Cerezo, Kashima, Vissel, and Omiya want for a Nabisco Cup final
Kashima versus FC Tokyo
What Albirex wants for a Nabisco Cup final
Kashima versus Shimizu
What Gamba wants for a Nabisco Cup final
Kashiwa versus FC Tokyo
GAME OF THE WEEK- Kashima versus Kashiwa It's slim pickings this week for games that affect relegation, so this is it. Kashima blasted FC Tokyo on Saturday, while Kashiwa eeked out a 1-0 win against Kawasaki. Both teams will be missing key players for the match. Kashiwa is without the midfield tandem of Ryoichi Kurisawa and Leandro Dominguez while Kashima goes without hardman Mitsuo Ogasawara. Kashima enters the away leg with a tenuous 3-2 advantage. Kashiwa only needs to win 1-0 to advance to the final with the two crucial goals picked up in Kashima.
OSAKA STREAK CORNER- With the 2-1 loss to Vegalta, Gamba's amazing 8 game unbeaten Leandro streak was finally laid to rest. It's unknown so far how the team reacts to losing their invincibility with the talismanic striker on the field. Another amazing streak held up when for the third week in a row, Cerezo Osaka came from behind twice to edge Sagan Tosu. Remarkably all three of their come from behind wins have been by 3-2 scorelines, two of which coming against top tier Shimizu and Sagan Tosu. Cerezo looks to extend the winning streak against FC Tokyo. Not sure if they care about the 3-2 scoreline.
Enjoy the bath
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Life outside Relegationistan
There are two teams and two teams alone who cannot enter Relegationistan. One is Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who with their 53 points are the only team who is guaranteed a spot in J1 next year. The other is Consadole Sapporo, who were put out of their misery in Kawasaki. (Yes, BTW they are officially relegated, don't look at the point totals, look at the schedule.......barring a double forfeit, it is impossible for them to survive)
Omiya's enthralling 0-0 draw versus Yokohama means that 4 teams have no chance of a J League crown, Omiya, Gamba, Albirex, and Consadole. 19 points seperate the ACL frontrunners and 16th place. The league this year is very compact and we still have a possibility of a tam going down with 40 points and a positive goal differential.
Today's column is not about the 6 residents of Relegationistan or the 3 legitimate challengers for the J1 crown. this one is going to focus on the 7 teams between 39 and 42 points.....very, very briefly.
4. Jubilo Iwata- 11 goals....that's the difference between the defense in Hiroshima and the difference in Iwata, and that's what sums up the problem in Iwata. Iwata has done a good job of stepping up and getting their young players in a position to compete for a title. However, it never seemed like they were serious contenders for the title. As August came around, Jubilo faded....putting in good efforts against Sanfrecce and Kashiwa, but dropping points to Kashima and Albirex. Jubilo will have their say in relegation with back to backs against Omiya away and Gamba at home.
5. Sagan Tosu- Even if Tosu falls apart the rest of the season, they still would consider their first stint in J1 an unqualified success. They are a rough team, a physical team, a simple team and one that is focused on one goal. They are almost unstoppable at home. Fortunately for Albirex and Cerezo, Tosu faces them on the road.....where they kinda suck. Breaking down the defense early usually leads to a win, which is tough to do against the J Leagues best.
6. Shimizu S Pulse- It's amazing that Shimizu finds itself in 6th, considering the massive turnover they've had during (and after) the summer transfer window. The team shed Takuma Edamura (Cerezo), Jymmy Franca (Verdy), Keisuke Iwashita (Gamba), Alex Brosque (Al Ain), and Shinji Ono (West Sydney Wanderers) and has focused more on young attacking players. That's part of the reason why they can win a game against Vegalta and lose to Cerezo in a week span. They may end up sneaking an ACL spot......or finishing 11th. Shimizu has upcoming games with Kobe, Kashima, Albirex, Gamba, and Omiya, so they are the most important team in the relegation mess.
7. Nagoya Grampus- Multiple ACL competitions and a very demanding head coach have sped up the due date on an aging core of players, especially in the back 4. Nagoya shows up about every other game and it might be a sign that the team needs to be blown up and rebuilt. There were rumors that Josh Kennedy was on his way to desert living and oil money, but a lack of fitness scuttled the bid. Still a dangerous squad, Nagoya has the dubious honor of being the only team to lose to Gamba, Albirex, and Consadole this season.....with the Albirex and Gamba games being 5-0 slaughters. Next week feels like it's gonna be a "kick the dog" game. Omiya, who has historically struggled against Nagoya, comes in against an embarrassed and angry Nagoya squad. I have two predictions 1. If Omiya is able to steal a win or a draw in Nagoya, they will stay up in J1 2. They are gonna get killed. Nagoya also faces Kashima in November.....I imagine Kashima will win by 8.
8. FC Tokyo- Because Tosu has been such a surprise package this year, FC Tokyo has seemed like a disappointment. However, a pretty respectable ACL campaign and a Semifinal run in Nabisco Cup has set the level of difficulty higher for a promoted squad. Shuichi Gonda and Yuhei Tokunaga leaving for London didn't help matters much and the erratic play in front of goal has held the team back. 8th place is probably fair for the squad. Gamba, Kobe, Cerezo, and Kashima all have games against 2010's cautionary tale of being "too good" to get relegated. Kobe and Gamba have extra signifigance (Kobe edged FC Tokyo in 2010, and Gamba took Yasuyuki Konno in 2011)
9. Kashiwa Reysol- The shock winner in 2011 has been far less successful this year. The combination of ACL duties, a bad offseason of transfers, and having a giant target on their backs all contributed to them being in the middle of nowhere. A Noda line Derby with Omiya (who sealed Kashiwa's relegation fate twice) is followed by contests against Gamba, Kobe, and a finale versus Kashima in what could be a historical banishment of the most successful team in the J League.
10. Yokohama F Marinos- If Consadole is a guaranteed 3 points, then Yokohama seems to be a guaranteed 1 this year. Saturday saw them tie for the 12th time this season in a very uninspired 90 minutes of play. It's an odd combination of old stars, young phenoms, and journeymen in their "prime" which reminds you more of a Yahoo Fantasy football lineup and less like a team constructed by anyone with a clue. Its another wasted year for a good fanbase with no change in sight. They have a game against Kobe. Guess we should just move along.
11. Kawasaki Frontale- They aren't in any real danger but it seems like a team who is neither good at offense or defense and has a coach who constantly changes lineups and starts his two sons over better players really should be sweating relegation. They are like a poor mans Yokohama this year, with alot of young attackers who fall down easily and a free kicking Nakamura. Gamba, Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo remain on their schedule.......which is good news for Gamba, Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo.
7 Games and two spots remain.
Relegationistans big winner- Cerezo Osaka For the second straight week, Osaka's other team managed to come from behind for a 3-2 victory. The move to bring in Levir Culpi was a smart one and one most teams would be hesitant to make.
Relegationistans big loser- Vissel Kobe The squad lost their fourth straight after jumping to an early 2-0 lead and having a man advantage. After a big offseason and the high profile hiring of Akira Nishino, expectations were raised through the roof. A loss next week to Niigata could mean major problems for the Crimson Cows.
Relegationistan MVP- Leandro Two more goals brings the Brazilian striker up to 11 in a mere 8 games. Gamba is an amazing 4-4-0 in those contests (compared with 3-4-12 without him) my choice for J League MVP. Vegalta offers him his biggest test of the season.
Game of the Week- Vissel versus Albirex Albirex hosts sagging Vissel Kobe in a "6 pointer" . This one seems to be more important for Albirex to win, with time running out on the season. However if Kobe loses this one, they are in real trouble. Gamba is hot and Albirex would be only a point behind the Kansai squad with Consadole still on the schedule. Albirex is coming off a huge 5-0 win against Nagoya and has a full squad available for Saturday's contest. Kobe comes off a gutting loss to Cerezo in the not quite Osaka versus Osaka derby.
Godspeed Hokkaido
Omiya's enthralling 0-0 draw versus Yokohama means that 4 teams have no chance of a J League crown, Omiya, Gamba, Albirex, and Consadole. 19 points seperate the ACL frontrunners and 16th place. The league this year is very compact and we still have a possibility of a tam going down with 40 points and a positive goal differential.
Today's column is not about the 6 residents of Relegationistan or the 3 legitimate challengers for the J1 crown. this one is going to focus on the 7 teams between 39 and 42 points.....very, very briefly.
4. Jubilo Iwata- 11 goals....that's the difference between the defense in Hiroshima and the difference in Iwata, and that's what sums up the problem in Iwata. Iwata has done a good job of stepping up and getting their young players in a position to compete for a title. However, it never seemed like they were serious contenders for the title. As August came around, Jubilo faded....putting in good efforts against Sanfrecce and Kashiwa, but dropping points to Kashima and Albirex. Jubilo will have their say in relegation with back to backs against Omiya away and Gamba at home.
5. Sagan Tosu- Even if Tosu falls apart the rest of the season, they still would consider their first stint in J1 an unqualified success. They are a rough team, a physical team, a simple team and one that is focused on one goal. They are almost unstoppable at home. Fortunately for Albirex and Cerezo, Tosu faces them on the road.....where they kinda suck. Breaking down the defense early usually leads to a win, which is tough to do against the J Leagues best.
6. Shimizu S Pulse- It's amazing that Shimizu finds itself in 6th, considering the massive turnover they've had during (and after) the summer transfer window. The team shed Takuma Edamura (Cerezo), Jymmy Franca (Verdy), Keisuke Iwashita (Gamba), Alex Brosque (Al Ain), and Shinji Ono (West Sydney Wanderers) and has focused more on young attacking players. That's part of the reason why they can win a game against Vegalta and lose to Cerezo in a week span. They may end up sneaking an ACL spot......or finishing 11th. Shimizu has upcoming games with Kobe, Kashima, Albirex, Gamba, and Omiya, so they are the most important team in the relegation mess.
7. Nagoya Grampus- Multiple ACL competitions and a very demanding head coach have sped up the due date on an aging core of players, especially in the back 4. Nagoya shows up about every other game and it might be a sign that the team needs to be blown up and rebuilt. There were rumors that Josh Kennedy was on his way to desert living and oil money, but a lack of fitness scuttled the bid. Still a dangerous squad, Nagoya has the dubious honor of being the only team to lose to Gamba, Albirex, and Consadole this season.....with the Albirex and Gamba games being 5-0 slaughters. Next week feels like it's gonna be a "kick the dog" game. Omiya, who has historically struggled against Nagoya, comes in against an embarrassed and angry Nagoya squad. I have two predictions 1. If Omiya is able to steal a win or a draw in Nagoya, they will stay up in J1 2. They are gonna get killed. Nagoya also faces Kashima in November.....I imagine Kashima will win by 8.
8. FC Tokyo- Because Tosu has been such a surprise package this year, FC Tokyo has seemed like a disappointment. However, a pretty respectable ACL campaign and a Semifinal run in Nabisco Cup has set the level of difficulty higher for a promoted squad. Shuichi Gonda and Yuhei Tokunaga leaving for London didn't help matters much and the erratic play in front of goal has held the team back. 8th place is probably fair for the squad. Gamba, Kobe, Cerezo, and Kashima all have games against 2010's cautionary tale of being "too good" to get relegated. Kobe and Gamba have extra signifigance (Kobe edged FC Tokyo in 2010, and Gamba took Yasuyuki Konno in 2011)
9. Kashiwa Reysol- The shock winner in 2011 has been far less successful this year. The combination of ACL duties, a bad offseason of transfers, and having a giant target on their backs all contributed to them being in the middle of nowhere. A Noda line Derby with Omiya (who sealed Kashiwa's relegation fate twice) is followed by contests against Gamba, Kobe, and a finale versus Kashima in what could be a historical banishment of the most successful team in the J League.
10. Yokohama F Marinos- If Consadole is a guaranteed 3 points, then Yokohama seems to be a guaranteed 1 this year. Saturday saw them tie for the 12th time this season in a very uninspired 90 minutes of play. It's an odd combination of old stars, young phenoms, and journeymen in their "prime" which reminds you more of a Yahoo Fantasy football lineup and less like a team constructed by anyone with a clue. Its another wasted year for a good fanbase with no change in sight. They have a game against Kobe. Guess we should just move along.
11. Kawasaki Frontale- They aren't in any real danger but it seems like a team who is neither good at offense or defense and has a coach who constantly changes lineups and starts his two sons over better players really should be sweating relegation. They are like a poor mans Yokohama this year, with alot of young attackers who fall down easily and a free kicking Nakamura. Gamba, Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo remain on their schedule.......which is good news for Gamba, Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo.
7 Games and two spots remain.
Relegationistans big winner- Cerezo Osaka For the second straight week, Osaka's other team managed to come from behind for a 3-2 victory. The move to bring in Levir Culpi was a smart one and one most teams would be hesitant to make.
Relegationistans big loser- Vissel Kobe The squad lost their fourth straight after jumping to an early 2-0 lead and having a man advantage. After a big offseason and the high profile hiring of Akira Nishino, expectations were raised through the roof. A loss next week to Niigata could mean major problems for the Crimson Cows.
Relegationistan MVP- Leandro Two more goals brings the Brazilian striker up to 11 in a mere 8 games. Gamba is an amazing 4-4-0 in those contests (compared with 3-4-12 without him) my choice for J League MVP. Vegalta offers him his biggest test of the season.
Game of the Week- Vissel versus Albirex Albirex hosts sagging Vissel Kobe in a "6 pointer" . This one seems to be more important for Albirex to win, with time running out on the season. However if Kobe loses this one, they are in real trouble. Gamba is hot and Albirex would be only a point behind the Kansai squad with Consadole still on the schedule. Albirex is coming off a huge 5-0 win against Nagoya and has a full squad available for Saturday's contest. Kobe comes off a gutting loss to Cerezo in the not quite Osaka versus Osaka derby.
Godspeed Hokkaido
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Relegationistan- 6 times 8 equals 40?
Conventional wisdom has given a nod to the 37 point line as the mythical safety zone for teams hoping to avoid relegation. This year feels different. There is a distinct possibility that 40 might not be enough to retain your members card in J1. Right now 16th place Gamba has a slight positive goal differential, trailing 6th place Nagoya by 1 goal and edging 9th place Shimizu and 10th place FC Tokyo.
It's been a unique and unpredictable year, with 1st and 15th seperated by 20 points....the same distance as 15th and last. If you want to look at it in a positive light, the league is very balanced. A more negative interpretation would be that the league is just mediocre.
There are many reasons for the bottom to be so, ummm, tight this year (That just sounds wrong) and as always I delve into them.
1. Historically Bad in Hokkaido- One reason for the need to raise the level of the relegation line is the incredibly inept performance of Consadole Sapporo. With 8 games left, Sapporo is a mere 4 points away from being relegated. 5 more losses on the road and Sapporo becomes the first team in J Leaague history to not claim a road point in an entire J league campaign. Failure to gain 6 points and Consadole breaks the ineptitude record shared by Shonan Bellmare and Yokohama FC.
Consadole have lose 7 of their games by 3 or more goals. They have conceded 4 or or more goals in 8 of their 26 games. More important to inhabitants of Relegationistan, Consadole have been wildly uncompetitive against the bottom 6 teams not based in Hokkaido. In ten games, Consadole has managed only a lone win against Cerezo Osaka early in the year. In fact, 5 of the 7 blowout games have been at the hands of the bottom 6, including a 7 goal pasting by Kashima (who is still on the schedule) and a pair of blowouts to Gamba Osaka. If you took out the goals scored against Consadole, Kobe would lose over 15 percent of it's goal tally (6 of 33), Kashima would lose 20 percent (7 of 35), Gamba over 20 percent (11 of 52), and Omiya a whopping 25 percent (7 of 28). Consadole points seem like money in the bank and might cost Cerezo when all is said and done.
2. The Low Ceiling- The top tier has had a hand in determining the relegation race thus far. Sanfrecce and Vegalta have been pretty consistent in beating up on Relegationstan. Sanfrecce lost to Niigata and tied both Omiya and Kashima to take 20 points in 9 games. Gamba, Cerezo, and Kobe still have upcoming games against the leader. Vegalta has been even more stingy, conceding a tie to Gamba in week 11 and claiming 22 points while having games against Gamba, Cerezo, Kashima, and Niigata still on the plate.(this doesn't count Consadole, who shocked Vegalta in a counterintuitive 2-1 upset).
Everybody's favorite title contender this year has been Urawa, who have been embarassingly generous in giving up points to the small 6. Urawa has managed only 15 points in 11 games against the bottom. If Kashima ends up getting relegated this year, they can point to Urawa not playing well against anyone but them this season. Only Cerezo is fortunate enough to have the Reds on their schedule going into the final 8.
Jubilo are a strange case. They've gone 6-1-3 against the bottom 6, but have not managed to beat any of the teams twice. If form holds, it's good news for both Omiya and Gamba, who have games on the schedule against Jubilo and recorded losses in their first games against the Iwata club.
Finally, there's Sagan. The deepest of south J1 squads has been the x factor for Omiya in the relegation race. In 10 games, the Tosu side have managed to win 6 and tie 3. Omiya's 1-0 win on the 15th was the lone blemish on an otherwise respectable record. Only Omiya have managed to stay undefeated aginst Tosu (a last second own goal the difference between 4 points and a full 6 points).
3. New citizens in Relegationistan- I'm not going to get into the whole strength of schedule thing with Kobe and Kashima because Im not sure how serious the threat is to either team in terms of relegation. Kashima have been going through a transition year, rotating out older players and trying to freshen up the lineup. It's been with mixed results. I think on balance, Kashima is around the same level as a Yokohama or a Shimizu, but a bad start and an erratic forwards corps have put them in a hole. The schedule at first glance doesn't look too daunting. 6 pointers against Gamba and Omiya await as well as a leisurely away trip to Sapporo. 3 wins looks like enough for this traditional J League power to live to fight another day, however after years of brutal scorelines, I imagine fans of other squads are secretly hoping the Antlers get to have a shot at an Ibaraki derby.
Kobe seems to be the more likely of the pair to be in some danger. Next week is a crucial 6 pointer in the "Kansai Derby that doesn't feature Gamba". The hiring of Akira Nishino combined with a very ambitious offseason of player personnel moves has put the pressure on Kobe to step up. It's still a team that seems to have yet to fully gel and the aging legs of many of it's core players haven't helped matters much. Kobe's schedule looks a little like a mountain range with upcoming games against Cerezo-Albirex-Shimizu-Kawasaki-Yokohama-FC Tokyo-Kashiwa-Sanfrecce. Kobe wins a couple early and they should be fine.....however if they lose the pair of 6 pointers, the schedule gets harder and the unthinkable becomes more and more likely. Really, there would be an ironic twist if Kobe gets relegated after firing the man who led them to a miracle 15th place finish two short years ago.
What does this all mean? As we saw after yesterday's results compared to last week's column, not much.. My gut reaction is that Gamba probably won't go down unless Leandro blows out his hamstring. But what do I know?
It's been a unique and unpredictable year, with 1st and 15th seperated by 20 points....the same distance as 15th and last. If you want to look at it in a positive light, the league is very balanced. A more negative interpretation would be that the league is just mediocre.
There are many reasons for the bottom to be so, ummm, tight this year (That just sounds wrong) and as always I delve into them.
1. Historically Bad in Hokkaido- One reason for the need to raise the level of the relegation line is the incredibly inept performance of Consadole Sapporo. With 8 games left, Sapporo is a mere 4 points away from being relegated. 5 more losses on the road and Sapporo becomes the first team in J Leaague history to not claim a road point in an entire J league campaign. Failure to gain 6 points and Consadole breaks the ineptitude record shared by Shonan Bellmare and Yokohama FC.
Consadole have lose 7 of their games by 3 or more goals. They have conceded 4 or or more goals in 8 of their 26 games. More important to inhabitants of Relegationistan, Consadole have been wildly uncompetitive against the bottom 6 teams not based in Hokkaido. In ten games, Consadole has managed only a lone win against Cerezo Osaka early in the year. In fact, 5 of the 7 blowout games have been at the hands of the bottom 6, including a 7 goal pasting by Kashima (who is still on the schedule) and a pair of blowouts to Gamba Osaka. If you took out the goals scored against Consadole, Kobe would lose over 15 percent of it's goal tally (6 of 33), Kashima would lose 20 percent (7 of 35), Gamba over 20 percent (11 of 52), and Omiya a whopping 25 percent (7 of 28). Consadole points seem like money in the bank and might cost Cerezo when all is said and done.
2. The Low Ceiling- The top tier has had a hand in determining the relegation race thus far. Sanfrecce and Vegalta have been pretty consistent in beating up on Relegationstan. Sanfrecce lost to Niigata and tied both Omiya and Kashima to take 20 points in 9 games. Gamba, Cerezo, and Kobe still have upcoming games against the leader. Vegalta has been even more stingy, conceding a tie to Gamba in week 11 and claiming 22 points while having games against Gamba, Cerezo, Kashima, and Niigata still on the plate.(this doesn't count Consadole, who shocked Vegalta in a counterintuitive 2-1 upset).
Everybody's favorite title contender this year has been Urawa, who have been embarassingly generous in giving up points to the small 6. Urawa has managed only 15 points in 11 games against the bottom. If Kashima ends up getting relegated this year, they can point to Urawa not playing well against anyone but them this season. Only Cerezo is fortunate enough to have the Reds on their schedule going into the final 8.
Jubilo are a strange case. They've gone 6-1-3 against the bottom 6, but have not managed to beat any of the teams twice. If form holds, it's good news for both Omiya and Gamba, who have games on the schedule against Jubilo and recorded losses in their first games against the Iwata club.
Finally, there's Sagan. The deepest of south J1 squads has been the x factor for Omiya in the relegation race. In 10 games, the Tosu side have managed to win 6 and tie 3. Omiya's 1-0 win on the 15th was the lone blemish on an otherwise respectable record. Only Omiya have managed to stay undefeated aginst Tosu (a last second own goal the difference between 4 points and a full 6 points).
3. New citizens in Relegationistan- I'm not going to get into the whole strength of schedule thing with Kobe and Kashima because Im not sure how serious the threat is to either team in terms of relegation. Kashima have been going through a transition year, rotating out older players and trying to freshen up the lineup. It's been with mixed results. I think on balance, Kashima is around the same level as a Yokohama or a Shimizu, but a bad start and an erratic forwards corps have put them in a hole. The schedule at first glance doesn't look too daunting. 6 pointers against Gamba and Omiya await as well as a leisurely away trip to Sapporo. 3 wins looks like enough for this traditional J League power to live to fight another day, however after years of brutal scorelines, I imagine fans of other squads are secretly hoping the Antlers get to have a shot at an Ibaraki derby.
Kobe seems to be the more likely of the pair to be in some danger. Next week is a crucial 6 pointer in the "Kansai Derby that doesn't feature Gamba". The hiring of Akira Nishino combined with a very ambitious offseason of player personnel moves has put the pressure on Kobe to step up. It's still a team that seems to have yet to fully gel and the aging legs of many of it's core players haven't helped matters much. Kobe's schedule looks a little like a mountain range with upcoming games against Cerezo-Albirex-Shimizu-Kawasaki-Yokohama-FC Tokyo-Kashiwa-Sanfrecce. Kobe wins a couple early and they should be fine.....however if they lose the pair of 6 pointers, the schedule gets harder and the unthinkable becomes more and more likely. Really, there would be an ironic twist if Kobe gets relegated after firing the man who led them to a miracle 15th place finish two short years ago.
What does this all mean? As we saw after yesterday's results compared to last week's column, not much.. My gut reaction is that Gamba probably won't go down unless Leandro blows out his hamstring. But what do I know?
Saturday, September 15, 2012
4 times 9 equals 37?
If you haven't read my friend Ben Maxwell's overview of the 2012 relegation battle, click this link http://jtalkpodcast.blogspot.jp/2012/09/racefor37.html and then come back.
I don't need to get into the history of relegation so I'd rather take a look at some stats and figures.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
With 9 games left to play, there is a clear advantage on paper for one team.
Omiya has already gotten the top three out of the way with two dismal home losses against Sanfrecce and Vegalta and a shock road tie to Urawa. The aggregate strength of schedule for Omiya is a 10.3 (that is, if you made their schedule into one team, they would be in 10th). Omiya's highest placed opponent is Jubilo in the last home game of the season (4th). Over half of their opponents are in the bottom half of the table, including games against 17th place Albirex and 18th place Sapporo.
Gamba is at the other extreme with an agg-strength of 6.2. Only two of Gamba's final 9 opponents are in the bottom half of J1 with Kawasaki being the low man on the totem pole (12th). 5 of the top 6 table sitters await Gamba, including the top 4 and 6th place Kashiwa (last year's winner).
Cerezo sits at 7.7. Like Gamba, the other Osaka squad has games against the top 3. Cerezo does have one game against Omiya awaiting them after a tough stretch of games (Tosu, FC Tokyo, Urawa, Vegalta), but their schedule is not very forgiving.
Albirex has 5 of their last 9 against top half clubs and faces an agg-strength schedule of 9.3. Albirex has the big advantage of facing Consadole at home on the last game of the season (0 points in road games this season). The big game for their survival chances is going to be on the 20th of October, when they venture out to Saitama for a matchup against Omiya.
The one thing that links all 4 teams is a matchup against Shimizu. Depending on what kind of mood S-Pulse is in on a given day could be the x-factor in survival.
HOME/ROAD SCHEDULE
The schedule by itself is a decent indicator of how tough the final stretch will be for each of the 4 relegation battlers, but it doesn't tell the whole story.
Home and road schedules and records probably paint a more accurate picture of what each team has to face in the next 3 months.
For example, Albirex has 5 of their last 9 at home. Sounds good, right? Unfortunately for them, they have the worst home record in the J League (managing just 1 win and 8 points in 12 games). Omiya is the third worst road team in the J League and has 5 of their last 9 on the road (they sit 11th at home with 4 remaining home contests). Gamba (in a slightly misleading stat) sit in 17 place for road record and find themselves playing 6 of their last 9 on the road. Cerezo also has the home field "disadvantage" with 5 of their last 9 at home (they are 16th in the league in home record with a paltry 13 points).
It may be better to look at adjusted agg-strength schedule. Some of the teams don't change all that much. For example...Vegalta Sendai are 3rd best at home and on the road, so there is no huge difference in the quality of play. However, a team like Jubilo shows a distinct imbalance in teerms of form on the road versus home form. They lead the league in home record but sit in 12th on the road. If you have to face Jubilo, you'd much rather do it in your own building.
Here are the home and away tables
Jubilo 27 points plus 14 goal differential
Sagan 27 plus 11
Vegalta 23 plus 15
Sanfrecce 23 plus 8
Urawa 23 plus 7
Nagoya 22 plus 4
Yokohama 21 plus 5
Kashima 20 plus 11
Shimizu 20 plus 3
Vissel 17 plus 1
Omiya 17 minus 5
Gamba 16 plus 1
FC Tokyo 16
Kashiwa 16 minus 1
Kawasaki 15 minus 4
Cerezo 13 minus 2
Consadole 10 minus 13
Albirex 8 minus 11
And the road table
Sanfrecce 24 plus 13
Kashiwa 23 plus 10
Vegalta 23 plus 5
Urawa 22 plus 4
FC Tokyo 21
Kawasaki 19 plus 1
Nagoya 19 minus 1
Shimizu 18 minus 3
Albirex 17 minus 1
Cerezo 16 minus 2
Vissel 16 minus 7
Jubilo 14 plus 1
Yokohama 14 minus 2
Kashima 13 minus 9
Sagan 11 minus 3
Omiya 10 minus 14
Gamba 9 minus 5
Consadole 0 minus 31
Having no knowledge of statistical theory or modeling, I'm not completely sure how to extrapolate this information to schedule strength.
Based on home rank versus road rank, Cerezo actually sees their schedule rank get a little bit harder with a bump from 7.4 to 7.7. Gamba has a bit easier schedule with an agg-strength drop from 6.2 to 7.5. Albirex has a slightly harder rank with a point 3 raise to 9. Omiya benefits the most from the weighted ranking, seeing their agg-strength drop from 10.3 to 12.2. Part of this has to do with Jubilo and Kashima being weak on the road and Kashiwa being average at home.
Maybe the best way to judge the schedules is to put the teams head to head predictions
If everything goes according to plan (it won't) the final records for the teams would look like this
14th Omiya 10 wins 8 ties 16 losses 38 points
15th Cerezo 10 wins 6 ties 18 losses 36 points
16th Albirex 7 wins 8 ties 19 losses 29 points
17th Gamba 7 wins 7 ties 20 losses 28 points
Basically, I took out upsets or other variables and said hey Omiya has 17 points at home and Jubilo has 14 points on the road.....the most likely outcome according to this is Omiya winning. Not real scientific. Consadole is awful this year, but they managed to knock off both Vegalta and Nagoya at home so it's not a great predictor.
COUNTING CARDS
The team who is in the most trouble in terms of league discipline is Albirex. No fewer than 7 Albirex players are a card away from having a forced vacation. The one in the most trouble happens to be Michel, who is on number 7 after last night's booking.
Omiya has 2 players on 3 cards and one more (Carlinhos) on 6. They aren't in too much trouble yet but all three are central mids. Omiya is one bad ref away from Hayato Hashimoto and Yosuke Kataoka doing a 2007 reunion tour.
Ogihara is the biggest worry for Cerezo. He is one card away from a two game break. Finally Gamba have 5 players on 3 cards so one or more might miss a game.
Having written all of this, everything will look different after next week.
I don't need to get into the history of relegation so I'd rather take a look at some stats and figures.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
With 9 games left to play, there is a clear advantage on paper for one team.
Omiya has already gotten the top three out of the way with two dismal home losses against Sanfrecce and Vegalta and a shock road tie to Urawa. The aggregate strength of schedule for Omiya is a 10.3 (that is, if you made their schedule into one team, they would be in 10th). Omiya's highest placed opponent is Jubilo in the last home game of the season (4th). Over half of their opponents are in the bottom half of the table, including games against 17th place Albirex and 18th place Sapporo.
Gamba is at the other extreme with an agg-strength of 6.2. Only two of Gamba's final 9 opponents are in the bottom half of J1 with Kawasaki being the low man on the totem pole (12th). 5 of the top 6 table sitters await Gamba, including the top 4 and 6th place Kashiwa (last year's winner).
Cerezo sits at 7.7. Like Gamba, the other Osaka squad has games against the top 3. Cerezo does have one game against Omiya awaiting them after a tough stretch of games (Tosu, FC Tokyo, Urawa, Vegalta), but their schedule is not very forgiving.
Albirex has 5 of their last 9 against top half clubs and faces an agg-strength schedule of 9.3. Albirex has the big advantage of facing Consadole at home on the last game of the season (0 points in road games this season). The big game for their survival chances is going to be on the 20th of October, when they venture out to Saitama for a matchup against Omiya.
The one thing that links all 4 teams is a matchup against Shimizu. Depending on what kind of mood S-Pulse is in on a given day could be the x-factor in survival.
HOME/ROAD SCHEDULE
The schedule by itself is a decent indicator of how tough the final stretch will be for each of the 4 relegation battlers, but it doesn't tell the whole story.
Home and road schedules and records probably paint a more accurate picture of what each team has to face in the next 3 months.
For example, Albirex has 5 of their last 9 at home. Sounds good, right? Unfortunately for them, they have the worst home record in the J League (managing just 1 win and 8 points in 12 games). Omiya is the third worst road team in the J League and has 5 of their last 9 on the road (they sit 11th at home with 4 remaining home contests). Gamba (in a slightly misleading stat) sit in 17 place for road record and find themselves playing 6 of their last 9 on the road. Cerezo also has the home field "disadvantage" with 5 of their last 9 at home (they are 16th in the league in home record with a paltry 13 points).
It may be better to look at adjusted agg-strength schedule. Some of the teams don't change all that much. For example...Vegalta Sendai are 3rd best at home and on the road, so there is no huge difference in the quality of play. However, a team like Jubilo shows a distinct imbalance in teerms of form on the road versus home form. They lead the league in home record but sit in 12th on the road. If you have to face Jubilo, you'd much rather do it in your own building.
Here are the home and away tables
Jubilo 27 points plus 14 goal differential
Sagan 27 plus 11
Vegalta 23 plus 15
Sanfrecce 23 plus 8
Urawa 23 plus 7
Nagoya 22 plus 4
Yokohama 21 plus 5
Kashima 20 plus 11
Shimizu 20 plus 3
Vissel 17 plus 1
Omiya 17 minus 5
Gamba 16 plus 1
FC Tokyo 16
Kashiwa 16 minus 1
Kawasaki 15 minus 4
Cerezo 13 minus 2
Consadole 10 minus 13
Albirex 8 minus 11
And the road table
Sanfrecce 24 plus 13
Kashiwa 23 plus 10
Vegalta 23 plus 5
Urawa 22 plus 4
FC Tokyo 21
Kawasaki 19 plus 1
Nagoya 19 minus 1
Shimizu 18 minus 3
Albirex 17 minus 1
Cerezo 16 minus 2
Vissel 16 minus 7
Jubilo 14 plus 1
Yokohama 14 minus 2
Kashima 13 minus 9
Sagan 11 minus 3
Omiya 10 minus 14
Gamba 9 minus 5
Consadole 0 minus 31
Having no knowledge of statistical theory or modeling, I'm not completely sure how to extrapolate this information to schedule strength.
Based on home rank versus road rank, Cerezo actually sees their schedule rank get a little bit harder with a bump from 7.4 to 7.7. Gamba has a bit easier schedule with an agg-strength drop from 6.2 to 7.5. Albirex has a slightly harder rank with a point 3 raise to 9. Omiya benefits the most from the weighted ranking, seeing their agg-strength drop from 10.3 to 12.2. Part of this has to do with Jubilo and Kashima being weak on the road and Kashiwa being average at home.
Maybe the best way to judge the schedules is to put the teams head to head predictions
If everything goes according to plan (it won't) the final records for the teams would look like this
14th Omiya 10 wins 8 ties 16 losses 38 points
15th Cerezo 10 wins 6 ties 18 losses 36 points
16th Albirex 7 wins 8 ties 19 losses 29 points
17th Gamba 7 wins 7 ties 20 losses 28 points
Basically, I took out upsets or other variables and said hey Omiya has 17 points at home and Jubilo has 14 points on the road.....the most likely outcome according to this is Omiya winning. Not real scientific. Consadole is awful this year, but they managed to knock off both Vegalta and Nagoya at home so it's not a great predictor.
COUNTING CARDS
The team who is in the most trouble in terms of league discipline is Albirex. No fewer than 7 Albirex players are a card away from having a forced vacation. The one in the most trouble happens to be Michel, who is on number 7 after last night's booking.
Omiya has 2 players on 3 cards and one more (Carlinhos) on 6. They aren't in too much trouble yet but all three are central mids. Omiya is one bad ref away from Hayato Hashimoto and Yosuke Kataoka doing a 2007 reunion tour.
Ogihara is the biggest worry for Cerezo. He is one card away from a two game break. Finally Gamba have 5 players on 3 cards so one or more might miss a game.
Having written all of this, everything will look different after next week.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
CUP UP!
Nabisco Cup, the prelude to Japan's 20 year experiment started the quarterfinal leg of its annual competition. 8 teams squared off in 4 matches based in Sendai, Kashima, Shizuoka, and Osaka. 4 of the teams were making their debut in the competition after flaming out of the ACL. 2 teams were in the middle of relegation danger, while 4 others have an eye on Championship aspirations.
The one thing all the games had in common was that none could break 10,000 at the gates. The fans are speaking, and what they are saying is that this competition isn't all that important.
It would be easy to say that we should just put it out of it's misery. Nabisco has long been seen as a second tier competition that teams aren't really taking all that seriously. The final haul, a check and a friendly match against a South American side that many won't know a thing about isn't really all that appealing. Throw in the fact that recent winners such as JEF Chiba, Oita Trinita, and FC Tokyo found themselves in J2 a year later and you have a recipe for apathy.
However in a country and a sport that holds dear to "tradition", it's hard to pull the plug on something so closely tied to the leagues roots. Short of Nabisco pulling out and nobody filling the void, it looks like we are stuck with it. So, what needs to change?
1. Schedule- Because teams don't control their own venues, it's difficult to easily fit a cup competition into a full slate of games. From time to time, you are going to have a team travel to one part of Japan and then the other while another team gets to play back to back at home. However, with the odd number of teams in group play, this advantage becomes even more exaggerated. Omiya had a road game in the middle of the week against Kashima, played a full squad and got killed a few days later against a fully rested Cerezo side. Urawa played a half squad against Cerezo during the week and then got beat 2-0 in a shock loss to a fully prepared Omiya side. Coaches have to still put in preparation and resources, even if they don't value the cup. The simple solution would be to pair up the teams fro group A and group B who have bye games in the game after cup competitions.
2. "Best Player" rule- Or the U-23 rule or whatever gimmick the league foists on teams in order to boost interest into the competition. The best player rule should really be the player that coaches think are the best for the short and long term goals of their team. Period. Consadole Sapporo, a team who was having an uphill battle for survival to begin with, saw their season end on May 16th when underrated goalkeeper Lee Ho Seung went down in a heap on the final whistle of a very meaningless Nabisco Cup game at Omiya. Naoki Yamada saw his season for Urawa (and his Olympic aspirations) end on the wrong end of a nightmare tackle against Vegalta Sendai. Now, I'm not saying that there are guarantees that either or both players wouldn't have been injured in league games, it could have happened. However, coaches could make different decisions in terms of player selection if the league constraints were off. At the very least, we'd avoid seeing scenes of star players like Shunsuke Nakamura going half speed and trying not to get hurt while guys who have their first chance at game action overcompensate and do something potentially stupid.
It's also a little unfair to take away chances for squad players who are putting in effort but dont have the full confidence of their coaching staff. It's a live competition without costs and a chance for little used guys to work their place into the rotation.
3. Crime and Punishment- Not all games are created equal, except in the eyes of the J League disciplinary committee. Today's quarterfinal matches were missing Kashiwa's Jorge Wagner and Shimizu's defensive pair of Yutaka Yoshida and Keisuke Iwashita. Was it because of misdeeds in their past Nabisco Cup games? No. the trio was disqualified for straight red cards in league action, an entirely different competition from the cup. Omiya's Yuki Fukaya picked up a controversial red card in a meaningless match against Shimizu in June (Shimizu had qualified for the quarterfinals and Omiya was eliminated the Wednesday before the match) and was disqualified for a far more important league game. In both cases, the punishment did not fit the crime. The league seriously needs to segregate competitions, except in cases of extreme foul play.
None of these fixes are going to solce the attendance problem but it would the competitions better for the teams. In order to breathe life into Nabisco Cup, they'll need to think out of the box.
Part of it could involve incorporating the "Team as One" theme. I'm not exactly sure how long fans will be excited to see a team of all-stars from around the league challenge a team of Kashima/Sendai players plus random aging foreign superstar, but I imagine it won't be too long.
Maybe if they expanded the tournament to J2 squads and made the preliminary groups into regional battles, it would increase interest. For the foreseeable future, Gifu is never going to play Nagoya in a meaningful match. However, putting them in a group with Kofu, Shimizu, Matsumoto, Nagoya, Iwata, and maybe Nagano would help with regional rivalries and bring in matchups that aren't common occurences. It could be a system based loosely on the Brazilian system of state championships and teams could decide whether or not they want to put full resources into it. Instead of random matchups where teams like Consadole have to travel to Kobe in the middle of the week and then come home to play a Niigata team who had a midweek home game, travel would be cut down. the schedule could be adjusted so that there is a full break during the transfer window. Teams could play the cup games during the break so that they could integrate new players and adjust for losses.
The "Team as One" concept could come in with the state/region winners playing in a small championship tournament at the end. Group winners could get regional bragging rights and a money award. Teams involved with the ACL would have the choice to enter a full squad, send a satellite squad/youth team combo or not participate at all. They shouldn't be given a free pass into the knockout stages.
Admittedly there are problems with this idea, like schedule congestion, venues, and the long term interest of seeing J2 squads. However, the cup in it's current form is almost unwatchable and not very fun for players and fans alike.
The one thing all the games had in common was that none could break 10,000 at the gates. The fans are speaking, and what they are saying is that this competition isn't all that important.
It would be easy to say that we should just put it out of it's misery. Nabisco has long been seen as a second tier competition that teams aren't really taking all that seriously. The final haul, a check and a friendly match against a South American side that many won't know a thing about isn't really all that appealing. Throw in the fact that recent winners such as JEF Chiba, Oita Trinita, and FC Tokyo found themselves in J2 a year later and you have a recipe for apathy.
However in a country and a sport that holds dear to "tradition", it's hard to pull the plug on something so closely tied to the leagues roots. Short of Nabisco pulling out and nobody filling the void, it looks like we are stuck with it. So, what needs to change?
1. Schedule- Because teams don't control their own venues, it's difficult to easily fit a cup competition into a full slate of games. From time to time, you are going to have a team travel to one part of Japan and then the other while another team gets to play back to back at home. However, with the odd number of teams in group play, this advantage becomes even more exaggerated. Omiya had a road game in the middle of the week against Kashima, played a full squad and got killed a few days later against a fully rested Cerezo side. Urawa played a half squad against Cerezo during the week and then got beat 2-0 in a shock loss to a fully prepared Omiya side. Coaches have to still put in preparation and resources, even if they don't value the cup. The simple solution would be to pair up the teams fro group A and group B who have bye games in the game after cup competitions.
2. "Best Player" rule- Or the U-23 rule or whatever gimmick the league foists on teams in order to boost interest into the competition. The best player rule should really be the player that coaches think are the best for the short and long term goals of their team. Period. Consadole Sapporo, a team who was having an uphill battle for survival to begin with, saw their season end on May 16th when underrated goalkeeper Lee Ho Seung went down in a heap on the final whistle of a very meaningless Nabisco Cup game at Omiya. Naoki Yamada saw his season for Urawa (and his Olympic aspirations) end on the wrong end of a nightmare tackle against Vegalta Sendai. Now, I'm not saying that there are guarantees that either or both players wouldn't have been injured in league games, it could have happened. However, coaches could make different decisions in terms of player selection if the league constraints were off. At the very least, we'd avoid seeing scenes of star players like Shunsuke Nakamura going half speed and trying not to get hurt while guys who have their first chance at game action overcompensate and do something potentially stupid.
It's also a little unfair to take away chances for squad players who are putting in effort but dont have the full confidence of their coaching staff. It's a live competition without costs and a chance for little used guys to work their place into the rotation.
3. Crime and Punishment- Not all games are created equal, except in the eyes of the J League disciplinary committee. Today's quarterfinal matches were missing Kashiwa's Jorge Wagner and Shimizu's defensive pair of Yutaka Yoshida and Keisuke Iwashita. Was it because of misdeeds in their past Nabisco Cup games? No. the trio was disqualified for straight red cards in league action, an entirely different competition from the cup. Omiya's Yuki Fukaya picked up a controversial red card in a meaningless match against Shimizu in June (Shimizu had qualified for the quarterfinals and Omiya was eliminated the Wednesday before the match) and was disqualified for a far more important league game. In both cases, the punishment did not fit the crime. The league seriously needs to segregate competitions, except in cases of extreme foul play.
None of these fixes are going to solce the attendance problem but it would the competitions better for the teams. In order to breathe life into Nabisco Cup, they'll need to think out of the box.
Part of it could involve incorporating the "Team as One" theme. I'm not exactly sure how long fans will be excited to see a team of all-stars from around the league challenge a team of Kashima/Sendai players plus random aging foreign superstar, but I imagine it won't be too long.
Maybe if they expanded the tournament to J2 squads and made the preliminary groups into regional battles, it would increase interest. For the foreseeable future, Gifu is never going to play Nagoya in a meaningful match. However, putting them in a group with Kofu, Shimizu, Matsumoto, Nagoya, Iwata, and maybe Nagano would help with regional rivalries and bring in matchups that aren't common occurences. It could be a system based loosely on the Brazilian system of state championships and teams could decide whether or not they want to put full resources into it. Instead of random matchups where teams like Consadole have to travel to Kobe in the middle of the week and then come home to play a Niigata team who had a midweek home game, travel would be cut down. the schedule could be adjusted so that there is a full break during the transfer window. Teams could play the cup games during the break so that they could integrate new players and adjust for losses.
The "Team as One" concept could come in with the state/region winners playing in a small championship tournament at the end. Group winners could get regional bragging rights and a money award. Teams involved with the ACL would have the choice to enter a full squad, send a satellite squad/youth team combo or not participate at all. They shouldn't be given a free pass into the knockout stages.
Admittedly there are problems with this idea, like schedule congestion, venues, and the long term interest of seeing J2 squads. However, the cup in it's current form is almost unwatchable and not very fun for players and fans alike.
Friday, March 9, 2012
My J1 predictions-Week 1
I'm going to do a rolling prediction in which I change week by week
Here's how I see the league now
1. Nagoya- I hate Tulio, I hate Tamada, and I hate Kennedy.....the J League was created to make me angry so it's this collection of diving twats that will take the crown.
2. Kashiwa- Alot of people seem to be talking down their offseason but I think Nasu and Lobo are going to make them a better squad.
3. Gamba- They always seem to steady out and rise to the top.
4. Vissel- I'm a bit nervous about a huge collection of near 30's and over 30's. The one thing that nobody is mentioning about the Hashimoto, Nozawa, Tashiro triumvirate is that they are players with a lot of miles on the odometer.
5. Urawa- I think they need a shrink more than a coach. hopefully this pick is high.
6. FC Tokyo- Good they looked good this week.
7. Kashima- Transition time. They seem to never get too bad though.
8a. Omiya- It's gotta happen sometime, right? Cho and Carlinhos were good pickups and if Kikuchi keeps Kataoka in Shiki, he's a positive as well.
8. Cerezo- I think they improved with the Kempes pickup. If they can play defense, they should be good
9. Sendai- I think the Uemoto signing is a drop in quality for them. Have no idea how their two Brazilians will do.
10. Yokohama- Why again are we taking Higuchi seriously when he says he wants to play attacking soccer? Did you not witness his ultra cautious display in 2008?
11. Ohhh my god, I'm tired.......is there really that much difference between 6th and 16th? No?
Jubilo- I think the young guys took people by surprise last year....as a known quantity, it's gonna be tougher for them.
12. Shimizu S Pulse- They signed another young keeper and lost another former gloriously old midfielder. Shinji Ono is still a god though
13B. Omiya- Always seem to be here.
14. Sanfrecce Hiroshima- Naoki Ishihara will fill the void left by Lee, but I'm not sure how Sanfrecce does with daddy gone to Urawa.
15. Kawasaki Frontale- First coach fired is Soma. Nishino to slot in? They don't like defense in Kawasaki either. 15b,c, and d. Sagan, Consadole, and Albirex-predicting relegation is bad juju. I learned my lesson with Montedio.
15e. Omiya- Starting Daigo Watanabe or Hayato Hashimoto leaves a dead spot on the field. Jun Suzuki sucks
Here's how I see the league now
1. Nagoya- I hate Tulio, I hate Tamada, and I hate Kennedy.....the J League was created to make me angry so it's this collection of diving twats that will take the crown.
2. Kashiwa- Alot of people seem to be talking down their offseason but I think Nasu and Lobo are going to make them a better squad.
3. Gamba- They always seem to steady out and rise to the top.
4. Vissel- I'm a bit nervous about a huge collection of near 30's and over 30's. The one thing that nobody is mentioning about the Hashimoto, Nozawa, Tashiro triumvirate is that they are players with a lot of miles on the odometer.
5. Urawa- I think they need a shrink more than a coach. hopefully this pick is high.
6. FC Tokyo- Good they looked good this week.
7. Kashima- Transition time. They seem to never get too bad though.
8a. Omiya- It's gotta happen sometime, right? Cho and Carlinhos were good pickups and if Kikuchi keeps Kataoka in Shiki, he's a positive as well.
8. Cerezo- I think they improved with the Kempes pickup. If they can play defense, they should be good
9. Sendai- I think the Uemoto signing is a drop in quality for them. Have no idea how their two Brazilians will do.
10. Yokohama- Why again are we taking Higuchi seriously when he says he wants to play attacking soccer? Did you not witness his ultra cautious display in 2008?
11. Ohhh my god, I'm tired.......is there really that much difference between 6th and 16th? No?
Jubilo- I think the young guys took people by surprise last year....as a known quantity, it's gonna be tougher for them.
12. Shimizu S Pulse- They signed another young keeper and lost another former gloriously old midfielder. Shinji Ono is still a god though
13B. Omiya- Always seem to be here.
14. Sanfrecce Hiroshima- Naoki Ishihara will fill the void left by Lee, but I'm not sure how Sanfrecce does with daddy gone to Urawa.
15. Kawasaki Frontale- First coach fired is Soma. Nishino to slot in? They don't like defense in Kawasaki either. 15b,c, and d. Sagan, Consadole, and Albirex-predicting relegation is bad juju. I learned my lesson with Montedio.
15e. Omiya- Starting Daigo Watanabe or Hayato Hashimoto leaves a dead spot on the field. Jun Suzuki sucks
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Old Dirty Bastards-Yokohama F Marinos
There's always been something that bothered me about Yokohama that I never could quite put my finger on. Maybe it's the fact that there wasn't really any backlash for the club when they released Naoki Matsuda. It's not a slight against Marinos fans......they got it. There was some real outrage towards the manager and the club brass. The media and the league kind of played it off. When Matsuda died, it seemed like he never got cut from Marinos......like he just decided that he wanted to help Matsumoto Yamaga and he was really excited that Kazushi Kimura was leading the team to the title. Even though Kimura brought down the hatchet.
Or maybe its the fact that they get the "benefit of the doubt" on the field. From the games I watched, it seemed like the referees had installed the "Shunsuke Bubble" because he is a national treasure. Or the "Nakazawa bubble" because he is a national hero. So I looked at the stats and found that they were the second least adjudicated team in the league while receiving the second most free kicks in the league (second only to Nagoya Grampus.....defending league champs...not defending 8th place team). Compare that to 13th place Omiya who had similar offensive numbers but 156 less free kicks and you have to wonder.....if the roles were reversed, how much better would Yokohama be?
Maybe it's because it seems like Yokohama wastes alot of talent. Kazuma Watanabe was a bright young star for them two years ago. Kimura comes in and benches in favor of the one-dimensional Masashi Oguro. Sounds like a familiar story considering the team had the rights to Yasuhito Endo, Seigo Narazaki and Naohiro Ishikawa and let them go. FC Tokyo should be really excited about watching Andrew Kumagai play for them in 5 years.*
From the Flugels debacle to the absolute gutless collapse of the team after Matsuda's death, it seems like Karmically there should be some real suffering in Yokohama land. But there isn't. every year it seems like the team just flaunts it's disdain for cosmic justice.
Did I mention that their big signing for 2012 was Marquinhos? 36 year old, 7 teams in 9 years Marquinhos? To replace Watanabe?
Did I mention that? I'm not degrading the signing because he is well travelled or aproaching the end of his career....that's fine. He still seems capable of scoring and probably would have been a good signing for them last year instead of Oguro.
No......my problem with him is this. He left Japan. After a huge earthquake and a ton of disaster befell the town that he played for and the town that he had his most success at (Sendai and Kashima), he left a place where he made a ton of money and a team who was trying to solidifying itself as a J1 team, who went out on a limb and signed him after his former coach questioned his desire to play and his professionalism.
He decided it was too much to stay and went home. A very human thing to do and something I don't blame him for.
He left Japan and Sendai. And that's fine and understandable.
Just don't come back.......at least don't come back if you don't plan on playing for Sendai.
Marquinhos at 36 playing for Yokohama a second time? It seems wrong to me. Like you're poking karma in the eye. But what do I know?
The other signings were reasonable for depth, nothing overwhelming but nice pickups for the future. The best of the group is probably U-23 striker Manabu Saito, who comes back from a loan stint in Ehime. Saito had a respectable 14 goals in 36 games and usually was the only threat for the southern squad. A more publicized signing was that of U-23 sideback Yusuke Higa from Ryutsu Keizai University. He probably isn't ready now but will look to push young left back Takashi Kanai out of the starting spot and line up next to Nakazawa.
29 year old career J2 player Seitaro Tomizawa comes in to be an emergency backup at the centerback position. An odd choice for both the player and the team. Another longtime J2 starter, Kosuke Nakamichi comes into challenge for a starting spot in the center of the field. After a good 2010 helped Fukuoka to acheive J1 status, a disastrous 2011 saw Nakamichi leave Fukuoka and head back to Kanagawa. Yuji Rokutan also comes over from Fukuoka to presumably be the third keeper.
Competent but underwhelming X and O man Yasuhiro Higuchi comes in after Kimura was let go because of a failed promise to get the team into the ACL. Higuchi coached Omiya to a 13th place finish in J1 in his only stint in the top flight. He finished in the bottom half of the table in his stints at Montedio Yamagata (8th and 9th out of 13 teams in 2006 and 2007 ) and Yokohama FC (16th out of 18 teams in 2009). Higuchi is fine when things are going as planned, his problem comes when things go wrong. He was very cautious during his time at Omiya and was very averse to playing younger players. That's probably not a good sign for players like Ono, Higa, Saito, and Andrew Kumagai, but great for Marquinhos and Oguro.
I think the team will probably hover around the top again before losing steam and settling in the middle. I'm tempted to say they will fall to the bottom with the core aging another year, but fate (and the officials who remember yesteryear) never seem to let Yokohama stray too far south of mid-table. 2012 prediction? 9th place
Or maybe its the fact that they get the "benefit of the doubt" on the field. From the games I watched, it seemed like the referees had installed the "Shunsuke Bubble" because he is a national treasure. Or the "Nakazawa bubble" because he is a national hero. So I looked at the stats and found that they were the second least adjudicated team in the league while receiving the second most free kicks in the league (second only to Nagoya Grampus.....defending league champs...not defending 8th place team). Compare that to 13th place Omiya who had similar offensive numbers but 156 less free kicks and you have to wonder.....if the roles were reversed, how much better would Yokohama be?
Maybe it's because it seems like Yokohama wastes alot of talent. Kazuma Watanabe was a bright young star for them two years ago. Kimura comes in and benches in favor of the one-dimensional Masashi Oguro. Sounds like a familiar story considering the team had the rights to Yasuhito Endo, Seigo Narazaki and Naohiro Ishikawa and let them go. FC Tokyo should be really excited about watching Andrew Kumagai play for them in 5 years.*
From the Flugels debacle to the absolute gutless collapse of the team after Matsuda's death, it seems like Karmically there should be some real suffering in Yokohama land. But there isn't. every year it seems like the team just flaunts it's disdain for cosmic justice.
Did I mention that their big signing for 2012 was Marquinhos? 36 year old, 7 teams in 9 years Marquinhos? To replace Watanabe?
Did I mention that? I'm not degrading the signing because he is well travelled or aproaching the end of his career....that's fine. He still seems capable of scoring and probably would have been a good signing for them last year instead of Oguro.
No......my problem with him is this. He left Japan. After a huge earthquake and a ton of disaster befell the town that he played for and the town that he had his most success at (Sendai and Kashima), he left a place where he made a ton of money and a team who was trying to solidifying itself as a J1 team, who went out on a limb and signed him after his former coach questioned his desire to play and his professionalism.
He decided it was too much to stay and went home. A very human thing to do and something I don't blame him for.
He left Japan and Sendai. And that's fine and understandable.
Just don't come back.......at least don't come back if you don't plan on playing for Sendai.
Marquinhos at 36 playing for Yokohama a second time? It seems wrong to me. Like you're poking karma in the eye. But what do I know?
The other signings were reasonable for depth, nothing overwhelming but nice pickups for the future. The best of the group is probably U-23 striker Manabu Saito, who comes back from a loan stint in Ehime. Saito had a respectable 14 goals in 36 games and usually was the only threat for the southern squad. A more publicized signing was that of U-23 sideback Yusuke Higa from Ryutsu Keizai University. He probably isn't ready now but will look to push young left back Takashi Kanai out of the starting spot and line up next to Nakazawa.
29 year old career J2 player Seitaro Tomizawa comes in to be an emergency backup at the centerback position. An odd choice for both the player and the team. Another longtime J2 starter, Kosuke Nakamichi comes into challenge for a starting spot in the center of the field. After a good 2010 helped Fukuoka to acheive J1 status, a disastrous 2011 saw Nakamichi leave Fukuoka and head back to Kanagawa. Yuji Rokutan also comes over from Fukuoka to presumably be the third keeper.
Competent but underwhelming X and O man Yasuhiro Higuchi comes in after Kimura was let go because of a failed promise to get the team into the ACL. Higuchi coached Omiya to a 13th place finish in J1 in his only stint in the top flight. He finished in the bottom half of the table in his stints at Montedio Yamagata (8th and 9th out of 13 teams in 2006 and 2007 ) and Yokohama FC (16th out of 18 teams in 2009). Higuchi is fine when things are going as planned, his problem comes when things go wrong. He was very cautious during his time at Omiya and was very averse to playing younger players. That's probably not a good sign for players like Ono, Higa, Saito, and Andrew Kumagai, but great for Marquinhos and Oguro.
I think the team will probably hover around the top again before losing steam and settling in the middle. I'm tempted to say they will fall to the bottom with the core aging another year, but fate (and the officials who remember yesteryear) never seem to let Yokohama stray too far south of mid-table. 2012 prediction? 9th place
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Tokyo Drift-Why the Gasmen aren't Kashiwa
Part two of my preseason report focuses on current J2 and Emperor's Cup holders FC Tokyo. There has already been alot of coverage focused on FC Tokyo, with publications like Weekly Soccer Magazine and El Golazo featuring new Serbian/Austrian manager Ranko Popovic. There's been alot of ink on the many transactions that the team has made in the offseason, including talented left back Kosuke Ota (Shimizu), dynamic striker (and former high school teammate of Sota Hirayama) Kazuma Watanabe (Yokohama), and crafty wing player Hiroki Kawano (from rivals Tokyo Verdy), to name just a few. Tokyo is already getting buzz as a "darkhorse" candidate for both the ACL spot and the title.
Lost amid a season in which former J2 champion Kashiwa Reysol swept to a title and Vegalta Sendai putting on an inspired 4th place run after the devestation of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami was the historic win in the Emperor's Cup.....a first for a lower division squad in the modern J League era.
They are an interesting story and rightfully deserve the print they are getting (unlike a certain Saitama team who are getting the lion's share of publicity this offseason), but they aren't Kashiwa. While I think it's likely the squad will finish in the top half of the table, I don't think they will be champs. Here's why.
1. Managerial Change- For the second year in a row, a promoted team has opted to switch gears and go with a new manager to start their J1 campaign. Toshiya Miura took over Ventforet Kofu in 2011 and drove them to the depths of J1. 20 games in, he was putting in resumes at Hello Work. Popovic comes in following a tough act. Kiyoshi Okuma had many flaws as a manager. He wasn't the most imaginative planner, he didn't really use or develop his younger players as much as he could, and he relied heavily on guys who weren't always focused on the (usually) inferior competiton in J2. But Okuma got the main job done. And he also got the squad the extra title to open up 2012. Popovic didn't.
FC Tokyo still has to deal with the transition from Okuma Tokyo to Popovic Tokyo. And it has to deal with the added expectations and burdens that come with being a cup holder. Popovic does this with a curtailed honeymoon period that naturally occurs with coaches who acheive promotion. Yoshiyuki Shinoda was allowed to go 13 games without a win at Fukuoka before management started thinking about changing things up. How many games can Popovic lose before things turn on him.
Nelsinho got half a season to evaluate what he had on his team, a year in J2 to clear out any dead weight or guys that didn't fit his system, and the power to bring in players who would play the way he wants them to play. (Captain Masahiro Koga, former leading scorers Minoru Suganuma and Franca, ansd starting sidebacks Yuzo Kobayashi and Yusuke Murakami all were jettisoned in moves that seemed bad at the time but ultimately made the team better). Popovic doesn't have that luxury. He was probably involved in the offseason moves but for the most part, this is still the Okuma/Jofuku squad from 2009.
2. ACL and Raised Expectations- It's hard enough to come back to J1, but Tokyo has to do it with a target on their back and the extra burden of travelling to Australia, Korea, and China. Tokyo starts the season with the ceremonial (and ultimately meaningless) Xerox Cup on the 3rd, flies to Australia for a game against Brisbane on the 6th, comes back for the season opener in Omiya on the 10th, gets a week to prepare for Nagoya for their home opener on the 17th and then faces another ACL foe a mere 3 days later on the 20th before heading to Kobe on the 24th. 6 games and two pretty big trips in an 18 day span to start the season is a killer for any team, much less one trying to reestablish themselves in J1.
FC Tokyo also doesn't have the luxury of sneaking up on anyone in 2012. The Emperor's Cup win eliminated any chance of teams overlooking the Gasmen. Kashiwa taking the title also didn't help......no J2 team with a decent payroll can be taken for granted as an easy win any longer.
3. Yasuyuki Konno- The one really dark cloud in an otherwise perfect offseason was the departure of National Team centerback and longtime squad leader Yasuyuki Konno to perennial title chasers Gamba Osaka. Arguably the best player on FC Tokyo, Konno leaves a line that still remains a relative strength. Yuhei Tokunaga is capable of sliding into the centerback spot with the acqusition of Ota. If he stumbles, former Jubilo back Kenichi Kaga is capable of filling in. In terms of personnel, there won't be a huge dropoff. Leadership is a far deeper hole to fill however. There is no natural leader to fill the role. Nao Ishikawa has been with the team the longest but seems to have annual struggles with fitness and form. Naotake Hanyu has an impressive resume but the last time he was front and center was Ivica Osim's awful Asian Cup campaign which saw the diminutive midfielder blubbering like a baby after Japan crashed out. Yohei Kajiyama seems to be disinterested half the time. Masato Morishige has been mentioned, but he is only 24 and his last two J1 campaigns saw his teams get relegated.
Kashiwa was able from Koga to a new captain because Nelsinho had control of the squad and the resume to back it up. It's not clear how much pull Popovic will have. Half a year at Oita and a stint in the JFL isn't the most impressive credentials so he's really going to have to win the locker room early and get a guy that wholly buys into his system to run the team on the field.
4. Donut Formation- FC Tokyo boasts alot of depth in many positions. U-23 keeper Shuichi Gonda and Hitoshi Shiota are probably the best one two punch in the J League and would both be upgrades to about 2/3rds of the teams in J1 as singular members. The back line has no real weak links, Ota, Tokunaga, Morishige, and Kenta Mukuhara are all quality players. The wings are three deep with Ishikawa leading a young and talented group of side attackers. Longtime goal poacher Lucas returned to help the team gain promotion last year and formed good chemistry with fellow Brazilian Roberto Cesar to form a formidible attacking line. Kazuma Watanabe and young Avispa returnee Kentaro Shigematsu come in to give Tokyo their most depth at the position in a long time. The one real problem area for FC Tokyo is the center midfield position.
It's presumed that Naotake Hanyu and Yohei Kajiyama are the starters. Both have their issues. Hanyu, probably better suited as a winger has arguably lost a step. He's a smart player but he's limited and at times struggled with J2 competition. Kajiyama, on the other hand has the tools to be consistently considered an upper eschelon defensive midfielder. the problem with Tokyo's number 10 is his attitude. Kajiyama has been criticized for mailing in performances against teams that he should be dominating. Linked with moves abroad in the past, it's hard to tell if he's fully committed to bringing a championship to Chofu. Yokohama import Ariajasuru Hasegawa has the size to play in middle but not the experience. Hideto Takahashi spent some time in the middle but has little game time in the top flight and Tatsuya Yazawa seems like a fringe J1 player at this point in his career. The one hope for the squad is that Takuji Yonemoto can find a way to put two years of devestating injuries behind him and claim the spot. Yonemoto is the best center midfielder on the squad, his injury was one of the big factors in the team dropping in 2010.
Ed note- Friend of Grotesque Simulation and On the Gas mastermind Ben Maxwell pointed out that Hanyu will in all likelihood not be the man next to Kajiyama when the season starts. I was going by the Shuukan Soccer Digest projected lineups but since 1. El Golazo put out the linueps of FC Tokyo's scrimmage against FC Ryukyuu and had Hanyu playing right side wing and 2. I trust Ben's opinion far more than SSD, I decided to opt for this addendum.
Tokyo has a fairly deep squad and talent in alot of positions. Looking at the past history of promoted squads since the league went to the single year format,with the exceptions of 2006 and 2008, at least one promoted team finished in the top half of the table
Best promoted squads
2011- Kashiwa-Champions
2010- Cerezo-3rd
2009- Sanfrecce-4th
2008- Kyoto Sanga-14th
2007-Kashiwa-8th
2006-Ventforet Kofu-15th
2005- Kawasaki-8th
With all due respect to Consadole Sapporo and Sagan Tosu, I think FC Tokyo is the best of the three. And it really won't be surprising to see them claim one of the top 9 spots in the table. The league looks like there is no clear front runner to start the campaign so it is possible that someone unlikely could steal the title.
There's just too much that Tokyo would have to overcome to repeat the shock win by Kashiwa. everything would have to break right for them to claim the title, and I think that's a bit too much to ask a debutant coach to do with a squad that has a very big flaw.
I think 6th would be a good finsih for them and something that the team should be proud of accomplishing if they manage to do it. They are pioneers on a couple of different levels and it will be interesting to watch them deal with the upcoming pitfalls and hurdles that await.
I just wish they didn't go with those godawful Adidas uniforms that remind me of the boring teams of their past. Lionel Richie and monochrome blue.......it's 2006 all over again.
Lost amid a season in which former J2 champion Kashiwa Reysol swept to a title and Vegalta Sendai putting on an inspired 4th place run after the devestation of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami was the historic win in the Emperor's Cup.....a first for a lower division squad in the modern J League era.
They are an interesting story and rightfully deserve the print they are getting (unlike a certain Saitama team who are getting the lion's share of publicity this offseason), but they aren't Kashiwa. While I think it's likely the squad will finish in the top half of the table, I don't think they will be champs. Here's why.
1. Managerial Change- For the second year in a row, a promoted team has opted to switch gears and go with a new manager to start their J1 campaign. Toshiya Miura took over Ventforet Kofu in 2011 and drove them to the depths of J1. 20 games in, he was putting in resumes at Hello Work. Popovic comes in following a tough act. Kiyoshi Okuma had many flaws as a manager. He wasn't the most imaginative planner, he didn't really use or develop his younger players as much as he could, and he relied heavily on guys who weren't always focused on the (usually) inferior competiton in J2. But Okuma got the main job done. And he also got the squad the extra title to open up 2012. Popovic didn't.
FC Tokyo still has to deal with the transition from Okuma Tokyo to Popovic Tokyo. And it has to deal with the added expectations and burdens that come with being a cup holder. Popovic does this with a curtailed honeymoon period that naturally occurs with coaches who acheive promotion. Yoshiyuki Shinoda was allowed to go 13 games without a win at Fukuoka before management started thinking about changing things up. How many games can Popovic lose before things turn on him.
Nelsinho got half a season to evaluate what he had on his team, a year in J2 to clear out any dead weight or guys that didn't fit his system, and the power to bring in players who would play the way he wants them to play. (Captain Masahiro Koga, former leading scorers Minoru Suganuma and Franca, ansd starting sidebacks Yuzo Kobayashi and Yusuke Murakami all were jettisoned in moves that seemed bad at the time but ultimately made the team better). Popovic doesn't have that luxury. He was probably involved in the offseason moves but for the most part, this is still the Okuma/Jofuku squad from 2009.
2. ACL and Raised Expectations- It's hard enough to come back to J1, but Tokyo has to do it with a target on their back and the extra burden of travelling to Australia, Korea, and China. Tokyo starts the season with the ceremonial (and ultimately meaningless) Xerox Cup on the 3rd, flies to Australia for a game against Brisbane on the 6th, comes back for the season opener in Omiya on the 10th, gets a week to prepare for Nagoya for their home opener on the 17th and then faces another ACL foe a mere 3 days later on the 20th before heading to Kobe on the 24th. 6 games and two pretty big trips in an 18 day span to start the season is a killer for any team, much less one trying to reestablish themselves in J1.
FC Tokyo also doesn't have the luxury of sneaking up on anyone in 2012. The Emperor's Cup win eliminated any chance of teams overlooking the Gasmen. Kashiwa taking the title also didn't help......no J2 team with a decent payroll can be taken for granted as an easy win any longer.
3. Yasuyuki Konno- The one really dark cloud in an otherwise perfect offseason was the departure of National Team centerback and longtime squad leader Yasuyuki Konno to perennial title chasers Gamba Osaka. Arguably the best player on FC Tokyo, Konno leaves a line that still remains a relative strength. Yuhei Tokunaga is capable of sliding into the centerback spot with the acqusition of Ota. If he stumbles, former Jubilo back Kenichi Kaga is capable of filling in. In terms of personnel, there won't be a huge dropoff. Leadership is a far deeper hole to fill however. There is no natural leader to fill the role. Nao Ishikawa has been with the team the longest but seems to have annual struggles with fitness and form. Naotake Hanyu has an impressive resume but the last time he was front and center was Ivica Osim's awful Asian Cup campaign which saw the diminutive midfielder blubbering like a baby after Japan crashed out. Yohei Kajiyama seems to be disinterested half the time. Masato Morishige has been mentioned, but he is only 24 and his last two J1 campaigns saw his teams get relegated.
Kashiwa was able from Koga to a new captain because Nelsinho had control of the squad and the resume to back it up. It's not clear how much pull Popovic will have. Half a year at Oita and a stint in the JFL isn't the most impressive credentials so he's really going to have to win the locker room early and get a guy that wholly buys into his system to run the team on the field.
4. Donut Formation- FC Tokyo boasts alot of depth in many positions. U-23 keeper Shuichi Gonda and Hitoshi Shiota are probably the best one two punch in the J League and would both be upgrades to about 2/3rds of the teams in J1 as singular members. The back line has no real weak links, Ota, Tokunaga, Morishige, and Kenta Mukuhara are all quality players. The wings are three deep with Ishikawa leading a young and talented group of side attackers. Longtime goal poacher Lucas returned to help the team gain promotion last year and formed good chemistry with fellow Brazilian Roberto Cesar to form a formidible attacking line. Kazuma Watanabe and young Avispa returnee Kentaro Shigematsu come in to give Tokyo their most depth at the position in a long time. The one real problem area for FC Tokyo is the center midfield position.
It's presumed that Naotake Hanyu and Yohei Kajiyama are the starters. Both have their issues. Hanyu, probably better suited as a winger has arguably lost a step. He's a smart player but he's limited and at times struggled with J2 competition. Kajiyama, on the other hand has the tools to be consistently considered an upper eschelon defensive midfielder. the problem with Tokyo's number 10 is his attitude. Kajiyama has been criticized for mailing in performances against teams that he should be dominating. Linked with moves abroad in the past, it's hard to tell if he's fully committed to bringing a championship to Chofu. Yokohama import Ariajasuru Hasegawa has the size to play in middle but not the experience. Hideto Takahashi spent some time in the middle but has little game time in the top flight and Tatsuya Yazawa seems like a fringe J1 player at this point in his career. The one hope for the squad is that Takuji Yonemoto can find a way to put two years of devestating injuries behind him and claim the spot. Yonemoto is the best center midfielder on the squad, his injury was one of the big factors in the team dropping in 2010.
Ed note- Friend of Grotesque Simulation and On the Gas mastermind Ben Maxwell pointed out that Hanyu will in all likelihood not be the man next to Kajiyama when the season starts. I was going by the Shuukan Soccer Digest projected lineups but since 1. El Golazo put out the linueps of FC Tokyo's scrimmage against FC Ryukyuu and had Hanyu playing right side wing and 2. I trust Ben's opinion far more than SSD, I decided to opt for this addendum.
Tokyo has a fairly deep squad and talent in alot of positions. Looking at the past history of promoted squads since the league went to the single year format,with the exceptions of 2006 and 2008, at least one promoted team finished in the top half of the table
Best promoted squads
2011- Kashiwa-Champions
2010- Cerezo-3rd
2009- Sanfrecce-4th
2008- Kyoto Sanga-14th
2007-Kashiwa-8th
2006-Ventforet Kofu-15th
2005- Kawasaki-8th
With all due respect to Consadole Sapporo and Sagan Tosu, I think FC Tokyo is the best of the three. And it really won't be surprising to see them claim one of the top 9 spots in the table. The league looks like there is no clear front runner to start the campaign so it is possible that someone unlikely could steal the title.
There's just too much that Tokyo would have to overcome to repeat the shock win by Kashiwa. everything would have to break right for them to claim the title, and I think that's a bit too much to ask a debutant coach to do with a squad that has a very big flaw.
I think 6th would be a good finsih for them and something that the team should be proud of accomplishing if they manage to do it. They are pioneers on a couple of different levels and it will be interesting to watch them deal with the upcoming pitfalls and hurdles that await.
I just wish they didn't go with those godawful Adidas uniforms that remind me of the boring teams of their past. Lionel Richie and monochrome blue.......it's 2006 all over again.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Rating the offseason (part 1)
It's been a couple of months and I'm trying to get the rust off so bear with me. I've been looking at the offseason and nobody really jumps out at me as a clear winner. Alot of teams improved in areas where they needed to, but left holes in other areas.
Its early but I'll go out on a limb with an early power ranking-
17. Sagan Tosu- I don't hate what Tosu did in the offseason, adding two really quality players in Yoshiki Takahashi (Vegalta) and giant centerback Kim Kun Hoan (Yokohama) who was being wasted at Nissan. I only put them here because I think they have the farthest to go in terms of getting their talent level on par with other J1 clubs and they haven'tdone that. Their offseason has been comparable to that of Avispa Fukuoka last year who added a couple of pieces but rolled with a squad that wasn't up to J1 par. Jubilo is a good indicator of their potential success. Montedio and Vegalta both won games against Iwata in their debutant campaigns and survived. Kofu lost their opener against the Shizuoka side and dropped to J2. We'll see how things shake out but right now I'm not optimistic.
17. Consadole Sapporo- I think they might have had a worse offseason, but I give them a slight nod over Tosu because many of their players have been in J1 before and I really like the Jade North signing. I also am a huge fan of manager Ishizaki, who turned around Kashiwa before leaving for Consadole. They have the potential to survive or be classically bad like Shonan Bellmare circa 2010. Who knows which team will turn out.
16. Albirex Niigata- A couple of years ago, Albirex was just under the fringes of being a real player in the J1 Championship scene, they were among the leaders in 2009 when they lost Pedro Junior to Gamba during the middle of the season. Kisho Yano? Gone. Takashi Kitano? Gone. Marcio Richardes? Gone. Nagata, Sakai, Cho Young Cheol, Chiba? All gone. There's a real talent drain going on in Niigata and eventually the team is not going to be able to surivive. The main problem for Albirex will be replacing the left side of their team with Cho, Sakai, and Chiba all leaving for other squads. Naoya Kikuchi is more than capable of filling in at centerback but losing a quality player in the hardest position to fill in Japan (left side back) is going to be a taller order. Kentaro Oi comes back from Shonan to compete for a spot while Alan Minero is brought in from Paulista to try and magically fill the role of new Brazilian goalista that Albirex seems to master at discovering.
15. Jubilo Iwata- Neophyte coach plus a combination of aging and young players kind of scares me. Hitoshi Morishita takes over for Masashi Yanagishita and has some concerns. So far the team has lost starting centerback Kenichi Kaga and midfielder/utility player Daisuke Nasu so far. Ryuichi Maeda and Yuichi Komano look to stay put for the time being but could be gone by summer. The team added an able centerback in Cho Byong Kuk from Vegalta but it seems like the team has taken a big step back from the 8th place finish.
14. Kawasaki Frontale- Possibly the team coming in with the most question marks, Frontale starts their life without Juninho. They brought in three Brazilian players, including Jeci, a 31 year old that hopes to lead a perennially weak defensive four. Koji Yamase, Junichi Inamoto, and Kengo Nakamura all put another year and more miles on their odometers.....how they hold up will be key. There is alot of talent up front but the duo of Yajima and Kobayashi have yet to prove they can score reliably over a 34 game stretch. Coach Soma is definetely under the gun this year and could possibly be the first one let go if things don't go well early.
13. Omiya Ardija- See GGOA for more views on Omiya!I have alot to say about them.
12. Sanfrecce Hiroshima- Hajime Moriyasu steps in for the big Serbian legend Petrovic and has big shoes to fill. After the relegation of 2007, Sanfrecce hasn't been a serious threat to the championship, but they have been a resectable top level team who plays an energetic, attacking style of play. Sanfrecce sees leading scorer Tadanari Lee head for Southhampton and second division English football while David Mujiri looks for work in other places. In comes the vastly underrated Naoki Ishihara who excels at quietly scoring goals. Kazuhiko Chiba comes over after playing for Moriyasu in Niigata in a move that seems to hurt Albirex more than help Sanfrecce. It's a little unclear how the centerback will fare as the centerman in a three back set which requires the central defender to direct most of the play from the back. I think it's a tough thing to ask a new manager to step in for a club legend and keep the ship steady. Schedule makers don't help the Sanfrecce cause.....Kashiwagi, Makino, and Petrovic all make an appearance for Urawa against their former squad.
11. Shimizu S Pulse- I'm not exactly sure how to rate the year that Afshin Ghotbi put out last year. On the one hand, he had managd to keep a team together that lost 7 starters from the year before. The other hand however saw the team filled with big names from Europe and various National teams in the Japan pyramid only muster one win against an elite team (Nagoya 2-0). The rest of their 11 wins came against teams in the 13 to 18 range. The defense, which allowed a mediocre tally of 51 goals, lost a good left side back in Kosuke Ota and a far less skilled centerback in the overrated form of Eddy Bosnar. The slot will be filled by either Calvin Jong a Pin, U-23 candidate Yutaka Yoshida, or Oita refugee Kang Son Ho. The problem I have with the team is more in the middle where name players like Shinji Ono and Freddy Llunberg reside. Nobody can question the bonafides of either man. The problem comes in the form of their less than reliable health. The backup prospects of Sugiyama and Daigo Kobayashi (combined for 22 games) paints a less rosy picture. The team is heavy on guys who are past their primes or not ready to shoulder all the load yet. Scary proposition.
10. Vegalta Sendai- The biggest surprise last year outside of Chiba had to be Sendai. After a struggle in their first year back in J1, Sendai used the inspiration of a huge disaster to propel themselves into a remarkable 4th place finish by playing lockdown defense and counterattacking whenever the opportunity arised. Asking the team to dupicate a remarkable 25 goals allowed is a bit much to ask, especially with the loss of Cho Byong Kuk. Cerezo centerback Taikai Uemoto comes in to take his place in what looks to be a downgrade. The acquisition of Wilson and his 3 goals from Chinese Super League side Shaanxi Badrong seems like an odd pickup as well. I think the biggest problem for the squad is going to be the letdown after playing on a mission for a tumultuos year.
Stay tuned for the top half of the power rankings
Its early but I'll go out on a limb with an early power ranking-
17. Sagan Tosu- I don't hate what Tosu did in the offseason, adding two really quality players in Yoshiki Takahashi (Vegalta) and giant centerback Kim Kun Hoan (Yokohama) who was being wasted at Nissan. I only put them here because I think they have the farthest to go in terms of getting their talent level on par with other J1 clubs and they haven'tdone that. Their offseason has been comparable to that of Avispa Fukuoka last year who added a couple of pieces but rolled with a squad that wasn't up to J1 par. Jubilo is a good indicator of their potential success. Montedio and Vegalta both won games against Iwata in their debutant campaigns and survived. Kofu lost their opener against the Shizuoka side and dropped to J2. We'll see how things shake out but right now I'm not optimistic.
17. Consadole Sapporo- I think they might have had a worse offseason, but I give them a slight nod over Tosu because many of their players have been in J1 before and I really like the Jade North signing. I also am a huge fan of manager Ishizaki, who turned around Kashiwa before leaving for Consadole. They have the potential to survive or be classically bad like Shonan Bellmare circa 2010. Who knows which team will turn out.
16. Albirex Niigata- A couple of years ago, Albirex was just under the fringes of being a real player in the J1 Championship scene, they were among the leaders in 2009 when they lost Pedro Junior to Gamba during the middle of the season. Kisho Yano? Gone. Takashi Kitano? Gone. Marcio Richardes? Gone. Nagata, Sakai, Cho Young Cheol, Chiba? All gone. There's a real talent drain going on in Niigata and eventually the team is not going to be able to surivive. The main problem for Albirex will be replacing the left side of their team with Cho, Sakai, and Chiba all leaving for other squads. Naoya Kikuchi is more than capable of filling in at centerback but losing a quality player in the hardest position to fill in Japan (left side back) is going to be a taller order. Kentaro Oi comes back from Shonan to compete for a spot while Alan Minero is brought in from Paulista to try and magically fill the role of new Brazilian goalista that Albirex seems to master at discovering.
15. Jubilo Iwata- Neophyte coach plus a combination of aging and young players kind of scares me. Hitoshi Morishita takes over for Masashi Yanagishita and has some concerns. So far the team has lost starting centerback Kenichi Kaga and midfielder/utility player Daisuke Nasu so far. Ryuichi Maeda and Yuichi Komano look to stay put for the time being but could be gone by summer. The team added an able centerback in Cho Byong Kuk from Vegalta but it seems like the team has taken a big step back from the 8th place finish.
14. Kawasaki Frontale- Possibly the team coming in with the most question marks, Frontale starts their life without Juninho. They brought in three Brazilian players, including Jeci, a 31 year old that hopes to lead a perennially weak defensive four. Koji Yamase, Junichi Inamoto, and Kengo Nakamura all put another year and more miles on their odometers.....how they hold up will be key. There is alot of talent up front but the duo of Yajima and Kobayashi have yet to prove they can score reliably over a 34 game stretch. Coach Soma is definetely under the gun this year and could possibly be the first one let go if things don't go well early.
13. Omiya Ardija- See GGOA for more views on Omiya!I have alot to say about them.
12. Sanfrecce Hiroshima- Hajime Moriyasu steps in for the big Serbian legend Petrovic and has big shoes to fill. After the relegation of 2007, Sanfrecce hasn't been a serious threat to the championship, but they have been a resectable top level team who plays an energetic, attacking style of play. Sanfrecce sees leading scorer Tadanari Lee head for Southhampton and second division English football while David Mujiri looks for work in other places. In comes the vastly underrated Naoki Ishihara who excels at quietly scoring goals. Kazuhiko Chiba comes over after playing for Moriyasu in Niigata in a move that seems to hurt Albirex more than help Sanfrecce. It's a little unclear how the centerback will fare as the centerman in a three back set which requires the central defender to direct most of the play from the back. I think it's a tough thing to ask a new manager to step in for a club legend and keep the ship steady. Schedule makers don't help the Sanfrecce cause.....Kashiwagi, Makino, and Petrovic all make an appearance for Urawa against their former squad.
11. Shimizu S Pulse- I'm not exactly sure how to rate the year that Afshin Ghotbi put out last year. On the one hand, he had managd to keep a team together that lost 7 starters from the year before. The other hand however saw the team filled with big names from Europe and various National teams in the Japan pyramid only muster one win against an elite team (Nagoya 2-0). The rest of their 11 wins came against teams in the 13 to 18 range. The defense, which allowed a mediocre tally of 51 goals, lost a good left side back in Kosuke Ota and a far less skilled centerback in the overrated form of Eddy Bosnar. The slot will be filled by either Calvin Jong a Pin, U-23 candidate Yutaka Yoshida, or Oita refugee Kang Son Ho. The problem I have with the team is more in the middle where name players like Shinji Ono and Freddy Llunberg reside. Nobody can question the bonafides of either man. The problem comes in the form of their less than reliable health. The backup prospects of Sugiyama and Daigo Kobayashi (combined for 22 games) paints a less rosy picture. The team is heavy on guys who are past their primes or not ready to shoulder all the load yet. Scary proposition.
10. Vegalta Sendai- The biggest surprise last year outside of Chiba had to be Sendai. After a struggle in their first year back in J1, Sendai used the inspiration of a huge disaster to propel themselves into a remarkable 4th place finish by playing lockdown defense and counterattacking whenever the opportunity arised. Asking the team to dupicate a remarkable 25 goals allowed is a bit much to ask, especially with the loss of Cho Byong Kuk. Cerezo centerback Taikai Uemoto comes in to take his place in what looks to be a downgrade. The acquisition of Wilson and his 3 goals from Chinese Super League side Shaanxi Badrong seems like an odd pickup as well. I think the biggest problem for the squad is going to be the letdown after playing on a mission for a tumultuos year.
Stay tuned for the top half of the power rankings
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