Next week Relegationistan closes it borders for 3 months and waits for a new season to begin. Meanwhile 4 teams remain in the boggy bottom. As a fan of a team who seems to be around here every year and managed to seal safety let me say first off to fans of Cerezo, Vissel, Gamba, and Albirex you have my sympathies.
On the one hand, I want to be happy that it isn't my team going down but I realize that it is a miserable situation to not know your fate, and even worse to get relegated. I am rooting for Albirex to pull through due to the fact that two of my favorite former Ardija players suit up for Niigata, but I'm not going to be that overjoyed if Vissel, Cerezo, or Gamba go down. All four clubs have likeable and valuable qualities and it's going to be a shame to see any of them go down. Part of me thinks that all four are probably better than the three newly promoted teams and that this year, with an incredibly small difference between 3rd and 17th, was a particularly harsh one.
That being said, I was hoping Kashima would go down. I mean, they don't have a J2 title yet, I think they deserve the chance to get one. Am I right?
On to the final four
14. Cerezo Osaka- After a nice 6 game unbeaten streak which seemingly put Pink Osaka into safety, the team has followed up with back to back blowout losses to Omiya and Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The team took a blow late in the first half when U-23 midfielder Hotaru Yamaguchi picked up a red card on a challenge in the box. He joins injured sideback Yusuke Maruhashi on the bench for Cerezo. The bad news is that they finish up against Kawasaki Frontale, a team who managed to find their form in recent weeks. Kawasaki is currently on a 3 game win streak after looking rudderless in October.
Safety permutations- Cerezo need to tie. They are in the best shape with 41 points. However, if Kobe wins and Gamba gets all 3 points, Cerezo goes down to J2 with a loss and worse goal differential. Their two recent blowouts put them at a minus 6.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2010 FC Tokyo. FC Tokyo went into the last game of the season controlling their own destiny. A very bad Kyoto Sanga team with nothing to play for did the unthinkable and upset FC Tokyo on the final day, sealing their fate in J2. While not exactly the same, Cerezo does sit in a position where they control their destiny and could be upset by a side with nothing major to play for.
15. Vissel Kobe- After a one week respite in a torrential downpour saw Vissel get off their 9 game winless slide, Hideo Tanaka picked up an early second yellow card, giving Kashiwa just enough advantage to win. Vissel are a mess after a very positive 2011 and an ambitious off-season in which the team looked to challenge for an ACL spot. The good news is that they play at home against the newly crowned J1 champions Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who hava absolutely nothing to play for. Ken Tokura comes back after a one game mandatory rest for yellow cards. The bad news is that they currently are the third worst home squad in the J League and host a team who sits tied for 1st in road record.
Safety Permutations- The easiest way for them to get through is with a win. It's pretty straightforward. If they tie, they need Gamba and Albirex not to win. Gamba has a straightforward goal differential advantage and Albirex is tied with Vissel (minus 8). If they lose and Gamba gets a tie, Vissel goes down.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2007 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Sanfrecce had a pretty decent lead over a very bad Omiya Ardija side in 2007 but imploded with internal strife and factionalism between older and younger players. They were talented, but started losing and couldn't figure out how to snap out of it. rumors out of Vissel was that the chemistry between departed coach Akira Nishino and the team were getting toxic. The good news is, 5 years later Sanfrecce won a J1 title. Puppies and rainbows for everybody!
16. Gamba Osaka- This would be an historic relegation on a few levels. Gamba currently has a plus 3 goal differential and lead the league in goals scored. They also would be the first J League ACL participant to be relegated in the same season in which they represented the league (Verdy were relegated and then entered the ACL as the 2004 Emperor Cup holders). After a torrid start, Al Sadd rental Leandro has cooled off a bit. The team is 6-7-1 in his 14 appearances. Fellow midseason pickup Akihiro Ienaga has been heating up at the right time, picking up a brace in yesterdays 2-2 draw to FC Tokyo. Gamba's main problem all season has been defensive woes. Gamba goes into their final game with a patchwork right side combination of Takuya Takei and out of shape Sota Nakazawa in front of seldomly dependable Yosuke Fujigaya. It's going to take a herculean effort from all three and results from their rivals to break their way in order for the former ACL holders to come out victorious. Gamba has a good news/bad news situtation when they head up to Shizuoka to face Jubilo Iwata. Iwata are among the better home sides in the J League but have recently seen their form bottom out. they currently sit on an 8 game winless streak and have lost 6 of their past 8.
Safety Permutations- A win combined with a loss by Cerezo or a loss or tie by Vissel would see Gamba through. Gamba can also go through with a tie if Vissel loses and Albirex ties or loses. they are done with a loss. They have a superior goal differential to everyone else in the group so that could come in handy.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2005 Tokyo Verdy 1969. The current Gamba incarnation was nowhere near the hot mess that the 2005 Verdy squad trotted out to the field, but there are some similarities. Verdy had a lot of good playmaking mids surrounding a talismanic Brazilian goal machine (the eponymous Washington) and a porous backline who failed to help out a very limited keeper. Verdy started out 2005 winning the Emperors Cup and the Xerox Cup and also had an epically nasty 3-0 victory against Real Madrid.
17. Albirex Niigata- Niigata held on to their very slim hopes by beating Vegalta Sendai 1-0 in Sendai. Not only did the team survive another week, they effectively ended the title hopes of Sendai. The victory came at a small cost however, as the teams second leading scorer Michel will miss the final game with yellow card accumulation. Their final game is a matchup of the leagues worst road team against the second worst home team as league worst Consadole Sapporo look to steal one last win before heading down to J2. A couple of things are going in Albirex favor in this one. Consadole are the leagues worst offense and defense. Albirex has the best defense in the league in terms of goals allowed. Albirex has a woeful scoring output of 25 goals, but face a team who has allowed 84 goals this season. Consadole has a big thing to play for.......if they lose or tie, they will go down with the worst point total in the single table era with 14. (Yokohama FC and Shonan hold the record for ineptitude with 16).
Safety Permutations- Win and hope Kobe and Gamba don't. Albirex is the team that needs the most help in the last day of the season.
Did anyone ever tell you you look like- 2009 JEF Chiba Ichihara. You're saying to yourself, hey...didn't that team survive? Yes they did. Part of the reason I chose them is because everybody has been burying Albirex since Higashiguchi went down with his injury and they've done well to stay alive. I also mention them because like Chiba in 2008 and 2009, they've been hemmoraghing talent for a couple of years and started off their season with a bad coach and a horrible string of results. It kind of serves as a cautionary tale for teams sitting in 15th place. Remember, it ain't over until the guy in the bright shirt with the beady eyes and the whistle says it's over.
Here's to a good final day and best of luck to my friend Kaz at OrangeBlue, the fantastically fantastic Ben Mabley at the J League minutecast, Alan Gibson from J Soccer Magazine (who might net the double relegation if things go right......or wrong), La Famiglia De Kobe, and the pink and purple side of Osaka. I don't eny you one bit.
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