You really don't need a forensics expert to see what went wrong with the seasons of the three dearly departed clubs at the bottom of the J1 table. Vissel and Gamba go down as the best two relegation sides in the modern 18 team single table format, while Consadole stake their claim as the worst team in J1 history. This was the year that saw 40 become the new 38 and traditional powers such as Kashima and Jubilo sweating out the drop until the last couple of weeks.
Time to examine the bodies of 2012
16. Vissel Kobe
Cause of Death- Negligent Homicide due to lack of leadership.
After an erratic start and a seemingly smooth transition to highly regarded former Gamba head Akira Nishino, the bottom dropped out of Kobe's season. Part of the problem was due to a rash of injuries around October, with centerback duo Kitamoto and Inoha missing time as well as strike team Tashiro and Okubo. After a 4-2 win at Consadole, Kobe managed only one win in their last 12 (a meager 7 points picked up over 3 and a half months). The high priced Nishino got handed his walking papers with 3 games left to play and the squad fell on the last day after going virtually the whole season out of the relegation area.
High profile signings such as Inoha, Tashiro and Nozawa failed to bring their leadership secrets from Kashima and nobody stepped up. Longtime ace and captain Yoshihito Okubo embodied the failings of the team, managing to avoid the back of the net in the last 13 games of the season. It seemed odd at the time to keep the armband on a guy who two years ago was openly questioning whether or not he was coming back to the squad during a relegation struggle. Seems more odd now.
Some high profile players like Hashimoto, Soma, and Tashiro have already announced they will help Kobe try and regain their top flight status, while others like Inoha and Okubo look likely to leave as fast as they can. The big problem with Kobe lies with their main patron, Rakuten owner and serial meddler Mikitani, who seems to undermine the squad at the most inopportune moments. It will be interesting to see how much he is willing to spend on a J2 squad.
How 16th place squads have fared later in life- Suprisingly great. 2005 Kashiwa managed to come back after one year and finish 8th. The next year, they managed a runner-up finish in Tennohai. 2006 Avispa was and is awful. 2007 Sanfrecce started a run of successful 16th place alumni. They finished 4th in 2009, stayed in the top half of the table for 5 years, and finally claimed a J1 title. Sanfrecce is the second former 16th place squad to win the main J1 prize, joining last years champs Kashiwa Reysol.
Not to be completely outdone, 2008's 16th place squad Jubilo Iwata won the Nabisco Cup in 2010. 2010's 16th place finisher managed the "prestigious" double in the form of the J2 title (or 19th place as I like to call it) and an unlikely Emperor's Cup win over fellow J2 squad Kyoto Sanga.
17. Gamba Osaka
Cause of Death- Asphyxiation due to a smothering of goals
Gamba managed only four shutouts the entire year and two wins by a one goal margin. The team got relegated despite the fact that they led the league in goals as well as finishing with a positive goal differential. Had the team managed to finish at 16th place Cerezo's mark of 53 goals, we probably would be talking about Gamba as an ACL team and not a J2 team. 21 of Gamba's 34 games ended in either a tie (11 times) or a 1 goal loss (10 times). One word- Fujigaya. The erstwhile keeper from Shizuoka was the main culprit in a leaky back line that appeared sieve-like when games were on the line. Last year, when they were among the worst defenses in the league, they did little in the offseason to address the problem. During the mid-season transfer window, they opted for offensive firepower and paid for it in the end.
How 17th place squads fared later in life- Since 2005, it's been a fairly bleak picture. Verdy managed to come back after two years, only to see team management blow up the squad a week before the 2008 finale. They slumped to 17th and still remain in J2. Cerezo took 3 years to get back but came in blazing, managing to earn an ACL spot. The last two years have seen the squad selling key young pieces to Europe and bottom table finishes. Ventforet Kofu took 2 years to get back to J1 before promptly turning around and heading back to J2. Oita imploded financially in 2009. It took 3 years for them to get their checkbook balanced and their team in order for another shot at top flight football. Kyoto Sanga, whose 19 points gives them the title of worst 17th place squad, still is trying to get back into J1. Avispa Fukuoka was a disaster last year, finishing just above Kataller Toyama, FC Gifu, and Gainare Tottori.
18. Consadole Sapporo
Cause of Death- Blunt trauma of not being good enough to compete
Some of the Northern Kingdom's problem could be blamed on injuries, but let's be honest.....Consadole just wasn't good enough to compete. When you have a 45 year old striker on your roster and the epitomy of journeyman in the form of Kazunari Okayama, you know you are in trouble. That being said, I still would argue that the team would not have been historically bad (records for futility in losses (28), points (14), goals against (88) and goal differential (-63). ) had goalkeeper Lee Ho Seung not gone down with injury in late May. In 15 games, Lee managed to keep his team competitive, never letting up more than 3 goals while facing a barrage of shots, including a 2-1 Nabisco cup loss to Kashima in which the team was outshot 35-1 . Consadole's buffet of tainted keepers after Lee's injury managed to let in 4 or more goals in 10 of the final 24 league matches. The loss of Lee changed the team from weak to embarassing.
Life after hitting rock bottom- 2005 Vissel Kobe managed one 9th place finish in their 6 years of J1 survival before getting relegated this year. 2006 Kyoto Sanga came back in 2008 and managed to stay up until 2010. Yokohama FC managed to get to the promotion playoffs after a bunch of non-descript years. Consadole you know about. After a miracle 15th place finish in 2008, JEF managed to hit bottom. As of today, they are still looking for a manager. Shonan Bellmare managed a shock 2nd place finish and hope that 2013 J1 is a little more forgiving than 2010. Montedio Yamagata faded after a strong start.
