Conventional wisdom has given a nod to the 37 point line as the mythical safety zone for teams hoping to avoid relegation. This year feels different. There is a distinct possibility that 40 might not be enough to retain your members card in J1. Right now 16th place Gamba has a slight positive goal differential, trailing 6th place Nagoya by 1 goal and edging 9th place Shimizu and 10th place FC Tokyo.
It's been a unique and unpredictable year, with 1st and 15th seperated by 20 points....the same distance as 15th and last. If you want to look at it in a positive light, the league is very balanced. A more negative interpretation would be that the league is just mediocre.
There are many reasons for the bottom to be so, ummm, tight this year (That just sounds wrong) and as always I delve into them.
1. Historically Bad in Hokkaido- One reason for the need to raise the level of the relegation line is the incredibly inept performance of Consadole Sapporo. With 8 games left, Sapporo is a mere 4 points away from being relegated. 5 more losses on the road and Sapporo becomes the first team in J Leaague history to not claim a road point in an entire J league campaign. Failure to gain 6 points and Consadole breaks the ineptitude record shared by Shonan Bellmare and Yokohama FC.
Consadole have lose 7 of their games by 3 or more goals. They have conceded 4 or or more goals in 8 of their 26 games. More important to inhabitants of Relegationistan, Consadole have been wildly uncompetitive against the bottom 6 teams not based in Hokkaido. In ten games, Consadole has managed only a lone win against Cerezo Osaka early in the year. In fact, 5 of the 7 blowout games have been at the hands of the bottom 6, including a 7 goal pasting by Kashima (who is still on the schedule) and a pair of blowouts to Gamba Osaka. If you took out the goals scored against Consadole, Kobe would lose over 15 percent of it's goal tally (6 of 33), Kashima would lose 20 percent (7 of 35), Gamba over 20 percent (11 of 52), and Omiya a whopping 25 percent (7 of 28). Consadole points seem like money in the bank and might cost Cerezo when all is said and done.
2. The Low Ceiling- The top tier has had a hand in determining the relegation race thus far. Sanfrecce and Vegalta have been pretty consistent in beating up on Relegationstan. Sanfrecce lost to Niigata and tied both Omiya and Kashima to take 20 points in 9 games. Gamba, Cerezo, and Kobe still have upcoming games against the leader. Vegalta has been even more stingy, conceding a tie to Gamba in week 11 and claiming 22 points while having games against Gamba, Cerezo, Kashima, and Niigata still on the plate.(this doesn't count Consadole, who shocked Vegalta in a counterintuitive 2-1 upset).
Everybody's favorite title contender this year has been Urawa, who have been embarassingly generous in giving up points to the small 6. Urawa has managed only 15 points in 11 games against the bottom. If Kashima ends up getting relegated this year, they can point to Urawa not playing well against anyone but them this season. Only Cerezo is fortunate enough to have the Reds on their schedule going into the final 8.
Jubilo are a strange case. They've gone 6-1-3 against the bottom 6, but have not managed to beat any of the teams twice. If form holds, it's good news for both Omiya and Gamba, who have games on the schedule against Jubilo and recorded losses in their first games against the Iwata club.
Finally, there's Sagan. The deepest of south J1 squads has been the x factor for Omiya in the relegation race. In 10 games, the Tosu side have managed to win 6 and tie 3. Omiya's 1-0 win on the 15th was the lone blemish on an otherwise respectable record. Only Omiya have managed to stay undefeated aginst Tosu (a last second own goal the difference between 4 points and a full 6 points).
3. New citizens in Relegationistan- I'm not going to get into the whole strength of schedule thing with Kobe and Kashima because Im not sure how serious the threat is to either team in terms of relegation. Kashima have been going through a transition year, rotating out older players and trying to freshen up the lineup. It's been with mixed results. I think on balance, Kashima is around the same level as a Yokohama or a Shimizu, but a bad start and an erratic forwards corps have put them in a hole. The schedule at first glance doesn't look too daunting. 6 pointers against Gamba and Omiya await as well as a leisurely away trip to Sapporo. 3 wins looks like enough for this traditional J League power to live to fight another day, however after years of brutal scorelines, I imagine fans of other squads are secretly hoping the Antlers get to have a shot at an Ibaraki derby.
Kobe seems to be the more likely of the pair to be in some danger. Next week is a crucial 6 pointer in the "Kansai Derby that doesn't feature Gamba". The hiring of Akira Nishino combined with a very ambitious offseason of player personnel moves has put the pressure on Kobe to step up. It's still a team that seems to have yet to fully gel and the aging legs of many of it's core players haven't helped matters much. Kobe's schedule looks a little like a mountain range with upcoming games against Cerezo-Albirex-Shimizu-Kawasaki-Yokohama-FC Tokyo-Kashiwa-Sanfrecce. Kobe wins a couple early and they should be fine.....however if they lose the pair of 6 pointers, the schedule gets harder and the unthinkable becomes more and more likely. Really, there would be an ironic twist if Kobe gets relegated after firing the man who led them to a miracle 15th place finish two short years ago.
What does this all mean? As we saw after yesterday's results compared to last week's column, not much.. My gut reaction is that Gamba probably won't go down unless Leandro blows out his hamstring. But what do I know?
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