There are two teams and two teams alone who cannot enter Relegationistan. One is Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who with their 53 points are the only team who is guaranteed a spot in J1 next year. The other is Consadole Sapporo, who were put out of their misery in Kawasaki. (Yes, BTW they are officially relegated, don't look at the point totals, look at the schedule.......barring a double forfeit, it is impossible for them to survive)
Omiya's enthralling 0-0 draw versus Yokohama means that 4 teams have no chance of a J League crown, Omiya, Gamba, Albirex, and Consadole. 19 points seperate the ACL frontrunners and 16th place. The league this year is very compact and we still have a possibility of a tam going down with 40 points and a positive goal differential.
Today's column is not about the 6 residents of Relegationistan or the 3 legitimate challengers for the J1 crown. this one is going to focus on the 7 teams between 39 and 42 points.....very, very briefly.
4. Jubilo Iwata- 11 goals....that's the difference between the defense in Hiroshima and the difference in Iwata, and that's what sums up the problem in Iwata. Iwata has done a good job of stepping up and getting their young players in a position to compete for a title. However, it never seemed like they were serious contenders for the title. As August came around, Jubilo faded....putting in good efforts against Sanfrecce and Kashiwa, but dropping points to Kashima and Albirex. Jubilo will have their say in relegation with back to backs against Omiya away and Gamba at home.
5. Sagan Tosu- Even if Tosu falls apart the rest of the season, they still would consider their first stint in J1 an unqualified success. They are a rough team, a physical team, a simple team and one that is focused on one goal. They are almost unstoppable at home. Fortunately for Albirex and Cerezo, Tosu faces them on the road.....where they kinda suck. Breaking down the defense early usually leads to a win, which is tough to do against the J Leagues best.
6. Shimizu S Pulse- It's amazing that Shimizu finds itself in 6th, considering the massive turnover they've had during (and after) the summer transfer window. The team shed Takuma Edamura (Cerezo), Jymmy Franca (Verdy), Keisuke Iwashita (Gamba), Alex Brosque (Al Ain), and Shinji Ono (West Sydney Wanderers) and has focused more on young attacking players. That's part of the reason why they can win a game against Vegalta and lose to Cerezo in a week span. They may end up sneaking an ACL spot......or finishing 11th. Shimizu has upcoming games with Kobe, Kashima, Albirex, Gamba, and Omiya, so they are the most important team in the relegation mess.
7. Nagoya Grampus- Multiple ACL competitions and a very demanding head coach have sped up the due date on an aging core of players, especially in the back 4. Nagoya shows up about every other game and it might be a sign that the team needs to be blown up and rebuilt. There were rumors that Josh Kennedy was on his way to desert living and oil money, but a lack of fitness scuttled the bid. Still a dangerous squad, Nagoya has the dubious honor of being the only team to lose to Gamba, Albirex, and Consadole this season.....with the Albirex and Gamba games being 5-0 slaughters. Next week feels like it's gonna be a "kick the dog" game. Omiya, who has historically struggled against Nagoya, comes in against an embarrassed and angry Nagoya squad. I have two predictions 1. If Omiya is able to steal a win or a draw in Nagoya, they will stay up in J1 2. They are gonna get killed. Nagoya also faces Kashima in November.....I imagine Kashima will win by 8.
8. FC Tokyo- Because Tosu has been such a surprise package this year, FC Tokyo has seemed like a disappointment. However, a pretty respectable ACL campaign and a Semifinal run in Nabisco Cup has set the level of difficulty higher for a promoted squad. Shuichi Gonda and Yuhei Tokunaga leaving for London didn't help matters much and the erratic play in front of goal has held the team back. 8th place is probably fair for the squad. Gamba, Kobe, Cerezo, and Kashima all have games against 2010's cautionary tale of being "too good" to get relegated. Kobe and Gamba have extra signifigance (Kobe edged FC Tokyo in 2010, and Gamba took Yasuyuki Konno in 2011)
9. Kashiwa Reysol- The shock winner in 2011 has been far less successful this year. The combination of ACL duties, a bad offseason of transfers, and having a giant target on their backs all contributed to them being in the middle of nowhere. A Noda line Derby with Omiya (who sealed Kashiwa's relegation fate twice) is followed by contests against Gamba, Kobe, and a finale versus Kashima in what could be a historical banishment of the most successful team in the J League.
10. Yokohama F Marinos- If Consadole is a guaranteed 3 points, then Yokohama seems to be a guaranteed 1 this year. Saturday saw them tie for the 12th time this season in a very uninspired 90 minutes of play. It's an odd combination of old stars, young phenoms, and journeymen in their "prime" which reminds you more of a Yahoo Fantasy football lineup and less like a team constructed by anyone with a clue. Its another wasted year for a good fanbase with no change in sight. They have a game against Kobe. Guess we should just move along.
11. Kawasaki Frontale- They aren't in any real danger but it seems like a team who is neither good at offense or defense and has a coach who constantly changes lineups and starts his two sons over better players really should be sweating relegation. They are like a poor mans Yokohama this year, with alot of young attackers who fall down easily and a free kicking Nakamura. Gamba, Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo remain on their schedule.......which is good news for Gamba, Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo.
7 Games and two spots remain.
Relegationistans big winner- Cerezo Osaka For the second straight week, Osaka's other team managed to come from behind for a 3-2 victory. The move to bring in Levir Culpi was a smart one and one most teams would be hesitant to make.
Relegationistans big loser- Vissel Kobe The squad lost their fourth straight after jumping to an early 2-0 lead and having a man advantage. After a big offseason and the high profile hiring of Akira Nishino, expectations were raised through the roof. A loss next week to Niigata could mean major problems for the Crimson Cows.
Relegationistan MVP- Leandro Two more goals brings the Brazilian striker up to 11 in a mere 8 games. Gamba is an amazing 4-4-0 in those contests (compared with 3-4-12 without him) my choice for J League MVP. Vegalta offers him his biggest test of the season.
Game of the Week- Vissel versus Albirex Albirex hosts sagging Vissel Kobe in a "6 pointer" . This one seems to be more important for Albirex to win, with time running out on the season. However if Kobe loses this one, they are in real trouble. Gamba is hot and Albirex would be only a point behind the Kansai squad with Consadole still on the schedule. Albirex is coming off a huge 5-0 win against Nagoya and has a full squad available for Saturday's contest. Kobe comes off a gutting loss to Cerezo in the not quite Osaka versus Osaka derby.
Godspeed Hokkaido
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