Elevator man-part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BC_Lb2fpbZo





With perennial attendance padders Urawa stuck right in the middle of the relegation fight, the question on everyone's mind (who are in Saitama of course) has to be "Who's Going Down?". 7 points seperate 16th place Urawa from 11th place Cerezo. While it looks like Montedio Yamagata (20 points) and 18th place Avispa Fukuoka (18 points) are locks for a 2012 in the netherworlds of J2, it's still a little premature to totally count either team out.

The first installment of Elevator man will examine Montedio and Avispa, the two squads nestled at the bottom.

Avispa Fukuoka
18 points 5-3-21 -37 goal differential
Record against last 5 opponents 0-0-5 -12 goal differential

Starting off the season with a 13 game winless streak probably wasn't in the original plans for J1's southernmost side. The team has been competitive in the second half of the season, going 5-2-8 after the initial disaster. However, Avispa really didn't do a good job in the offseason and came in with a team that lagged behind others in J1 caliber players. The last five games can be looked at in one of two ways.....either Avispa is happy.....the highest ranked team they face is 8th place Shimizu, or they are worried because they failed to score against any of their last 5 opponents. In order to survive relegation, Avispa will have to run the table and hope Urawa, Montedio, and Kofu all slump badly.....it's already impossible to catch either Omiya or Albirex.

What does the future hold?

Tetsuya Asano stepped in during the middle of the season for embattled manager Yoshiyuki Shinoda. Having nothing to lose, Asano has experimented with his lineups, dropping captain Kosuke Nakamichi in favor of Toshiya Sueyoshi and Jun Suzuki. Avispa managed to pull off a couple of upsets against midtable squads Kawasaki Frontale and Sanfrecce Hiroshima but they haven't been able to dig themselves out of last place. Rumors are floating around already that changes are imminent with talks of former Shonan Bellmare manager Masaaki Kanno coming in to help Asano learn the ropes as well as disappointing target forward Rafael Ramazotti already on his way out after a few brief appearances. Young rentals Takuya Maatsura (Jubilo) and Kentaro Shigematsu (Tokyo) will probably either go back to reinforce their parent clubs or join other J1 strugglers in order to get more experience.

Of the players signed directly to Avispa, striker Hideya Okamoto looks to be the player most sought after by other teams. The 24 year old leads the team in scoring with 7 goals and probably will get some notice from teams desperate for bench scoring despite his erratic year. Nakamichi is another player that could get some notice from teams looking for a player to bolster their midfield. I'm not sure how the rest of the players will react to returning to J2. It seems like the team has bought into Asano's style and might be content to stay with the club and try to get them back to top flight. It's not over yet, but it's close

More info at Avispa Eigo http://avispafukuoka.wordpress.com/

Chances of survival 5%

Montedio Yamagata
20 points 5-6-18 -24 goal differential
Record against last 5 opponents 2-0-3 1 goal differential

When a team is dealing with a very limited budget, it's important to get the most oout of your foreign signings. The pre-season signings of Hugo, Maicon, and Osama El-Samni have yielded no goals on no shots and no minutes played. A Job-like influx of injuries, combined with the awful decision to start Yuki Uekusa over net stalwart Kenta Shimizu early in the year got the squad off on the wrong foot. The big problem though has been replacing departed loanee Yuzo Tashiro (Kashima). Yamagata sits at the bottom in terms of passing, dribbling, and shots....probably a reason why they sit last in the league in scoring with 21 goals. Shinji Kobayashi did an admirable job keeping an undermanned team disciplined for two years but it looks like the talent gap and time has finally caught up with the manager and the squad.

What does the future hold?

It's another tough call with Yamagata players. Of the group, Kenta Shimizu seems to be the player most ready to step in and start for a J1 squad. the keeper should get some looks from teams hoping to shore up bad defenses. Yu Hasegawa has been out of form and injured over the past two years after a breakthrough 2009, if rumors about Mike Haavenar heading to Europe are to be believed, Yamanashi native Hasegawa seems like a good candidate to compete for Haavenar's target forward spot. Aging sideback Tatsuya Ishikawa is also a candidate to land a job somewhere in J1 after resurecting his career in Yamagata. Ishikawa seems to always be in and out of the training room but has a good free kick and is competent at left back, a spot most teams have trouble filling.

The squad has some young talent to base their foundation on, namely Shun Ito and Tetsuhiro Ota but it's unlikely they will be able to come back in the near future. Kobayashi hasn't done an awful job but probably will bear the brunt of the squad going down.

Chances of Survival 5%