There are two teams and two teams alone who cannot enter Relegationistan. One is Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who with their 53 points are the only team who is guaranteed a spot in J1 next year. The other is Consadole Sapporo, who were put out of their misery in Kawasaki. (Yes, BTW they are officially relegated, don't look at the point totals, look at the schedule.......barring a double forfeit, it is impossible for them to survive)
Omiya's enthralling 0-0 draw versus Yokohama means that 4 teams have no chance of a J League crown, Omiya, Gamba, Albirex, and Consadole. 19 points seperate the ACL frontrunners and 16th place. The league this year is very compact and we still have a possibility of a tam going down with 40 points and a positive goal differential.
Today's column is not about the 6 residents of Relegationistan or the 3 legitimate challengers for the J1 crown. this one is going to focus on the 7 teams between 39 and 42 points.....very, very briefly.
4. Jubilo Iwata- 11 goals....that's the difference between the defense in Hiroshima and the difference in Iwata, and that's what sums up the problem in Iwata. Iwata has done a good job of stepping up and getting their young players in a position to compete for a title. However, it never seemed like they were serious contenders for the title. As August came around, Jubilo faded....putting in good efforts against Sanfrecce and Kashiwa, but dropping points to Kashima and Albirex. Jubilo will have their say in relegation with back to backs against Omiya away and Gamba at home.
5. Sagan Tosu- Even if Tosu falls apart the rest of the season, they still would consider their first stint in J1 an unqualified success. They are a rough team, a physical team, a simple team and one that is focused on one goal. They are almost unstoppable at home. Fortunately for Albirex and Cerezo, Tosu faces them on the road.....where they kinda suck. Breaking down the defense early usually leads to a win, which is tough to do against the J Leagues best.
6. Shimizu S Pulse- It's amazing that Shimizu finds itself in 6th, considering the massive turnover they've had during (and after) the summer transfer window. The team shed Takuma Edamura (Cerezo), Jymmy Franca (Verdy), Keisuke Iwashita (Gamba), Alex Brosque (Al Ain), and Shinji Ono (West Sydney Wanderers) and has focused more on young attacking players. That's part of the reason why they can win a game against Vegalta and lose to Cerezo in a week span. They may end up sneaking an ACL spot......or finishing 11th. Shimizu has upcoming games with Kobe, Kashima, Albirex, Gamba, and Omiya, so they are the most important team in the relegation mess.
7. Nagoya Grampus- Multiple ACL competitions and a very demanding head coach have sped up the due date on an aging core of players, especially in the back 4. Nagoya shows up about every other game and it might be a sign that the team needs to be blown up and rebuilt. There were rumors that Josh Kennedy was on his way to desert living and oil money, but a lack of fitness scuttled the bid. Still a dangerous squad, Nagoya has the dubious honor of being the only team to lose to Gamba, Albirex, and Consadole this season.....with the Albirex and Gamba games being 5-0 slaughters. Next week feels like it's gonna be a "kick the dog" game. Omiya, who has historically struggled against Nagoya, comes in against an embarrassed and angry Nagoya squad. I have two predictions 1. If Omiya is able to steal a win or a draw in Nagoya, they will stay up in J1 2. They are gonna get killed. Nagoya also faces Kashima in November.....I imagine Kashima will win by 8.
8. FC Tokyo- Because Tosu has been such a surprise package this year, FC Tokyo has seemed like a disappointment. However, a pretty respectable ACL campaign and a Semifinal run in Nabisco Cup has set the level of difficulty higher for a promoted squad. Shuichi Gonda and Yuhei Tokunaga leaving for London didn't help matters much and the erratic play in front of goal has held the team back. 8th place is probably fair for the squad. Gamba, Kobe, Cerezo, and Kashima all have games against 2010's cautionary tale of being "too good" to get relegated. Kobe and Gamba have extra signifigance (Kobe edged FC Tokyo in 2010, and Gamba took Yasuyuki Konno in 2011)
9. Kashiwa Reysol- The shock winner in 2011 has been far less successful this year. The combination of ACL duties, a bad offseason of transfers, and having a giant target on their backs all contributed to them being in the middle of nowhere. A Noda line Derby with Omiya (who sealed Kashiwa's relegation fate twice) is followed by contests against Gamba, Kobe, and a finale versus Kashima in what could be a historical banishment of the most successful team in the J League.
10. Yokohama F Marinos- If Consadole is a guaranteed 3 points, then Yokohama seems to be a guaranteed 1 this year. Saturday saw them tie for the 12th time this season in a very uninspired 90 minutes of play. It's an odd combination of old stars, young phenoms, and journeymen in their "prime" which reminds you more of a Yahoo Fantasy football lineup and less like a team constructed by anyone with a clue. Its another wasted year for a good fanbase with no change in sight. They have a game against Kobe. Guess we should just move along.
11. Kawasaki Frontale- They aren't in any real danger but it seems like a team who is neither good at offense or defense and has a coach who constantly changes lineups and starts his two sons over better players really should be sweating relegation. They are like a poor mans Yokohama this year, with alot of young attackers who fall down easily and a free kicking Nakamura. Gamba, Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo remain on their schedule.......which is good news for Gamba, Kobe, Albirex, and Cerezo.
7 Games and two spots remain.
Relegationistans big winner- Cerezo Osaka For the second straight week, Osaka's other team managed to come from behind for a 3-2 victory. The move to bring in Levir Culpi was a smart one and one most teams would be hesitant to make.
Relegationistans big loser- Vissel Kobe The squad lost their fourth straight after jumping to an early 2-0 lead and having a man advantage. After a big offseason and the high profile hiring of Akira Nishino, expectations were raised through the roof. A loss next week to Niigata could mean major problems for the Crimson Cows.
Relegationistan MVP- Leandro Two more goals brings the Brazilian striker up to 11 in a mere 8 games. Gamba is an amazing 4-4-0 in those contests (compared with 3-4-12 without him) my choice for J League MVP. Vegalta offers him his biggest test of the season.
Game of the Week- Vissel versus Albirex Albirex hosts sagging Vissel Kobe in a "6 pointer" . This one seems to be more important for Albirex to win, with time running out on the season. However if Kobe loses this one, they are in real trouble. Gamba is hot and Albirex would be only a point behind the Kansai squad with Consadole still on the schedule. Albirex is coming off a huge 5-0 win against Nagoya and has a full squad available for Saturday's contest. Kobe comes off a gutting loss to Cerezo in the not quite Osaka versus Osaka derby.
Godspeed Hokkaido
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Relegationistan- 6 times 8 equals 40?
Conventional wisdom has given a nod to the 37 point line as the mythical safety zone for teams hoping to avoid relegation. This year feels different. There is a distinct possibility that 40 might not be enough to retain your members card in J1. Right now 16th place Gamba has a slight positive goal differential, trailing 6th place Nagoya by 1 goal and edging 9th place Shimizu and 10th place FC Tokyo.
It's been a unique and unpredictable year, with 1st and 15th seperated by 20 points....the same distance as 15th and last. If you want to look at it in a positive light, the league is very balanced. A more negative interpretation would be that the league is just mediocre.
There are many reasons for the bottom to be so, ummm, tight this year (That just sounds wrong) and as always I delve into them.
1. Historically Bad in Hokkaido- One reason for the need to raise the level of the relegation line is the incredibly inept performance of Consadole Sapporo. With 8 games left, Sapporo is a mere 4 points away from being relegated. 5 more losses on the road and Sapporo becomes the first team in J Leaague history to not claim a road point in an entire J league campaign. Failure to gain 6 points and Consadole breaks the ineptitude record shared by Shonan Bellmare and Yokohama FC.
Consadole have lose 7 of their games by 3 or more goals. They have conceded 4 or or more goals in 8 of their 26 games. More important to inhabitants of Relegationistan, Consadole have been wildly uncompetitive against the bottom 6 teams not based in Hokkaido. In ten games, Consadole has managed only a lone win against Cerezo Osaka early in the year. In fact, 5 of the 7 blowout games have been at the hands of the bottom 6, including a 7 goal pasting by Kashima (who is still on the schedule) and a pair of blowouts to Gamba Osaka. If you took out the goals scored against Consadole, Kobe would lose over 15 percent of it's goal tally (6 of 33), Kashima would lose 20 percent (7 of 35), Gamba over 20 percent (11 of 52), and Omiya a whopping 25 percent (7 of 28). Consadole points seem like money in the bank and might cost Cerezo when all is said and done.
2. The Low Ceiling- The top tier has had a hand in determining the relegation race thus far. Sanfrecce and Vegalta have been pretty consistent in beating up on Relegationstan. Sanfrecce lost to Niigata and tied both Omiya and Kashima to take 20 points in 9 games. Gamba, Cerezo, and Kobe still have upcoming games against the leader. Vegalta has been even more stingy, conceding a tie to Gamba in week 11 and claiming 22 points while having games against Gamba, Cerezo, Kashima, and Niigata still on the plate.(this doesn't count Consadole, who shocked Vegalta in a counterintuitive 2-1 upset).
Everybody's favorite title contender this year has been Urawa, who have been embarassingly generous in giving up points to the small 6. Urawa has managed only 15 points in 11 games against the bottom. If Kashima ends up getting relegated this year, they can point to Urawa not playing well against anyone but them this season. Only Cerezo is fortunate enough to have the Reds on their schedule going into the final 8.
Jubilo are a strange case. They've gone 6-1-3 against the bottom 6, but have not managed to beat any of the teams twice. If form holds, it's good news for both Omiya and Gamba, who have games on the schedule against Jubilo and recorded losses in their first games against the Iwata club.
Finally, there's Sagan. The deepest of south J1 squads has been the x factor for Omiya in the relegation race. In 10 games, the Tosu side have managed to win 6 and tie 3. Omiya's 1-0 win on the 15th was the lone blemish on an otherwise respectable record. Only Omiya have managed to stay undefeated aginst Tosu (a last second own goal the difference between 4 points and a full 6 points).
3. New citizens in Relegationistan- I'm not going to get into the whole strength of schedule thing with Kobe and Kashima because Im not sure how serious the threat is to either team in terms of relegation. Kashima have been going through a transition year, rotating out older players and trying to freshen up the lineup. It's been with mixed results. I think on balance, Kashima is around the same level as a Yokohama or a Shimizu, but a bad start and an erratic forwards corps have put them in a hole. The schedule at first glance doesn't look too daunting. 6 pointers against Gamba and Omiya await as well as a leisurely away trip to Sapporo. 3 wins looks like enough for this traditional J League power to live to fight another day, however after years of brutal scorelines, I imagine fans of other squads are secretly hoping the Antlers get to have a shot at an Ibaraki derby.
Kobe seems to be the more likely of the pair to be in some danger. Next week is a crucial 6 pointer in the "Kansai Derby that doesn't feature Gamba". The hiring of Akira Nishino combined with a very ambitious offseason of player personnel moves has put the pressure on Kobe to step up. It's still a team that seems to have yet to fully gel and the aging legs of many of it's core players haven't helped matters much. Kobe's schedule looks a little like a mountain range with upcoming games against Cerezo-Albirex-Shimizu-Kawasaki-Yokohama-FC Tokyo-Kashiwa-Sanfrecce. Kobe wins a couple early and they should be fine.....however if they lose the pair of 6 pointers, the schedule gets harder and the unthinkable becomes more and more likely. Really, there would be an ironic twist if Kobe gets relegated after firing the man who led them to a miracle 15th place finish two short years ago.
What does this all mean? As we saw after yesterday's results compared to last week's column, not much.. My gut reaction is that Gamba probably won't go down unless Leandro blows out his hamstring. But what do I know?
It's been a unique and unpredictable year, with 1st and 15th seperated by 20 points....the same distance as 15th and last. If you want to look at it in a positive light, the league is very balanced. A more negative interpretation would be that the league is just mediocre.
There are many reasons for the bottom to be so, ummm, tight this year (That just sounds wrong) and as always I delve into them.
1. Historically Bad in Hokkaido- One reason for the need to raise the level of the relegation line is the incredibly inept performance of Consadole Sapporo. With 8 games left, Sapporo is a mere 4 points away from being relegated. 5 more losses on the road and Sapporo becomes the first team in J Leaague history to not claim a road point in an entire J league campaign. Failure to gain 6 points and Consadole breaks the ineptitude record shared by Shonan Bellmare and Yokohama FC.
Consadole have lose 7 of their games by 3 or more goals. They have conceded 4 or or more goals in 8 of their 26 games. More important to inhabitants of Relegationistan, Consadole have been wildly uncompetitive against the bottom 6 teams not based in Hokkaido. In ten games, Consadole has managed only a lone win against Cerezo Osaka early in the year. In fact, 5 of the 7 blowout games have been at the hands of the bottom 6, including a 7 goal pasting by Kashima (who is still on the schedule) and a pair of blowouts to Gamba Osaka. If you took out the goals scored against Consadole, Kobe would lose over 15 percent of it's goal tally (6 of 33), Kashima would lose 20 percent (7 of 35), Gamba over 20 percent (11 of 52), and Omiya a whopping 25 percent (7 of 28). Consadole points seem like money in the bank and might cost Cerezo when all is said and done.
2. The Low Ceiling- The top tier has had a hand in determining the relegation race thus far. Sanfrecce and Vegalta have been pretty consistent in beating up on Relegationstan. Sanfrecce lost to Niigata and tied both Omiya and Kashima to take 20 points in 9 games. Gamba, Cerezo, and Kobe still have upcoming games against the leader. Vegalta has been even more stingy, conceding a tie to Gamba in week 11 and claiming 22 points while having games against Gamba, Cerezo, Kashima, and Niigata still on the plate.(this doesn't count Consadole, who shocked Vegalta in a counterintuitive 2-1 upset).
Everybody's favorite title contender this year has been Urawa, who have been embarassingly generous in giving up points to the small 6. Urawa has managed only 15 points in 11 games against the bottom. If Kashima ends up getting relegated this year, they can point to Urawa not playing well against anyone but them this season. Only Cerezo is fortunate enough to have the Reds on their schedule going into the final 8.
Jubilo are a strange case. They've gone 6-1-3 against the bottom 6, but have not managed to beat any of the teams twice. If form holds, it's good news for both Omiya and Gamba, who have games on the schedule against Jubilo and recorded losses in their first games against the Iwata club.
Finally, there's Sagan. The deepest of south J1 squads has been the x factor for Omiya in the relegation race. In 10 games, the Tosu side have managed to win 6 and tie 3. Omiya's 1-0 win on the 15th was the lone blemish on an otherwise respectable record. Only Omiya have managed to stay undefeated aginst Tosu (a last second own goal the difference between 4 points and a full 6 points).
3. New citizens in Relegationistan- I'm not going to get into the whole strength of schedule thing with Kobe and Kashima because Im not sure how serious the threat is to either team in terms of relegation. Kashima have been going through a transition year, rotating out older players and trying to freshen up the lineup. It's been with mixed results. I think on balance, Kashima is around the same level as a Yokohama or a Shimizu, but a bad start and an erratic forwards corps have put them in a hole. The schedule at first glance doesn't look too daunting. 6 pointers against Gamba and Omiya await as well as a leisurely away trip to Sapporo. 3 wins looks like enough for this traditional J League power to live to fight another day, however after years of brutal scorelines, I imagine fans of other squads are secretly hoping the Antlers get to have a shot at an Ibaraki derby.
Kobe seems to be the more likely of the pair to be in some danger. Next week is a crucial 6 pointer in the "Kansai Derby that doesn't feature Gamba". The hiring of Akira Nishino combined with a very ambitious offseason of player personnel moves has put the pressure on Kobe to step up. It's still a team that seems to have yet to fully gel and the aging legs of many of it's core players haven't helped matters much. Kobe's schedule looks a little like a mountain range with upcoming games against Cerezo-Albirex-Shimizu-Kawasaki-Yokohama-FC Tokyo-Kashiwa-Sanfrecce. Kobe wins a couple early and they should be fine.....however if they lose the pair of 6 pointers, the schedule gets harder and the unthinkable becomes more and more likely. Really, there would be an ironic twist if Kobe gets relegated after firing the man who led them to a miracle 15th place finish two short years ago.
What does this all mean? As we saw after yesterday's results compared to last week's column, not much.. My gut reaction is that Gamba probably won't go down unless Leandro blows out his hamstring. But what do I know?
Saturday, September 15, 2012
4 times 9 equals 37?
If you haven't read my friend Ben Maxwell's overview of the 2012 relegation battle, click this link http://jtalkpodcast.blogspot.jp/2012/09/racefor37.html and then come back.
I don't need to get into the history of relegation so I'd rather take a look at some stats and figures.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
With 9 games left to play, there is a clear advantage on paper for one team.
Omiya has already gotten the top three out of the way with two dismal home losses against Sanfrecce and Vegalta and a shock road tie to Urawa. The aggregate strength of schedule for Omiya is a 10.3 (that is, if you made their schedule into one team, they would be in 10th). Omiya's highest placed opponent is Jubilo in the last home game of the season (4th). Over half of their opponents are in the bottom half of the table, including games against 17th place Albirex and 18th place Sapporo.
Gamba is at the other extreme with an agg-strength of 6.2. Only two of Gamba's final 9 opponents are in the bottom half of J1 with Kawasaki being the low man on the totem pole (12th). 5 of the top 6 table sitters await Gamba, including the top 4 and 6th place Kashiwa (last year's winner).
Cerezo sits at 7.7. Like Gamba, the other Osaka squad has games against the top 3. Cerezo does have one game against Omiya awaiting them after a tough stretch of games (Tosu, FC Tokyo, Urawa, Vegalta), but their schedule is not very forgiving.
Albirex has 5 of their last 9 against top half clubs and faces an agg-strength schedule of 9.3. Albirex has the big advantage of facing Consadole at home on the last game of the season (0 points in road games this season). The big game for their survival chances is going to be on the 20th of October, when they venture out to Saitama for a matchup against Omiya.
The one thing that links all 4 teams is a matchup against Shimizu. Depending on what kind of mood S-Pulse is in on a given day could be the x-factor in survival.
HOME/ROAD SCHEDULE
The schedule by itself is a decent indicator of how tough the final stretch will be for each of the 4 relegation battlers, but it doesn't tell the whole story.
Home and road schedules and records probably paint a more accurate picture of what each team has to face in the next 3 months.
For example, Albirex has 5 of their last 9 at home. Sounds good, right? Unfortunately for them, they have the worst home record in the J League (managing just 1 win and 8 points in 12 games). Omiya is the third worst road team in the J League and has 5 of their last 9 on the road (they sit 11th at home with 4 remaining home contests). Gamba (in a slightly misleading stat) sit in 17 place for road record and find themselves playing 6 of their last 9 on the road. Cerezo also has the home field "disadvantage" with 5 of their last 9 at home (they are 16th in the league in home record with a paltry 13 points).
It may be better to look at adjusted agg-strength schedule. Some of the teams don't change all that much. For example...Vegalta Sendai are 3rd best at home and on the road, so there is no huge difference in the quality of play. However, a team like Jubilo shows a distinct imbalance in teerms of form on the road versus home form. They lead the league in home record but sit in 12th on the road. If you have to face Jubilo, you'd much rather do it in your own building.
Here are the home and away tables
Jubilo 27 points plus 14 goal differential
Sagan 27 plus 11
Vegalta 23 plus 15
Sanfrecce 23 plus 8
Urawa 23 plus 7
Nagoya 22 plus 4
Yokohama 21 plus 5
Kashima 20 plus 11
Shimizu 20 plus 3
Vissel 17 plus 1
Omiya 17 minus 5
Gamba 16 plus 1
FC Tokyo 16
Kashiwa 16 minus 1
Kawasaki 15 minus 4
Cerezo 13 minus 2
Consadole 10 minus 13
Albirex 8 minus 11
And the road table
Sanfrecce 24 plus 13
Kashiwa 23 plus 10
Vegalta 23 plus 5
Urawa 22 plus 4
FC Tokyo 21
Kawasaki 19 plus 1
Nagoya 19 minus 1
Shimizu 18 minus 3
Albirex 17 minus 1
Cerezo 16 minus 2
Vissel 16 minus 7
Jubilo 14 plus 1
Yokohama 14 minus 2
Kashima 13 minus 9
Sagan 11 minus 3
Omiya 10 minus 14
Gamba 9 minus 5
Consadole 0 minus 31
Having no knowledge of statistical theory or modeling, I'm not completely sure how to extrapolate this information to schedule strength.
Based on home rank versus road rank, Cerezo actually sees their schedule rank get a little bit harder with a bump from 7.4 to 7.7. Gamba has a bit easier schedule with an agg-strength drop from 6.2 to 7.5. Albirex has a slightly harder rank with a point 3 raise to 9. Omiya benefits the most from the weighted ranking, seeing their agg-strength drop from 10.3 to 12.2. Part of this has to do with Jubilo and Kashima being weak on the road and Kashiwa being average at home.
Maybe the best way to judge the schedules is to put the teams head to head predictions
If everything goes according to plan (it won't) the final records for the teams would look like this
14th Omiya 10 wins 8 ties 16 losses 38 points
15th Cerezo 10 wins 6 ties 18 losses 36 points
16th Albirex 7 wins 8 ties 19 losses 29 points
17th Gamba 7 wins 7 ties 20 losses 28 points
Basically, I took out upsets or other variables and said hey Omiya has 17 points at home and Jubilo has 14 points on the road.....the most likely outcome according to this is Omiya winning. Not real scientific. Consadole is awful this year, but they managed to knock off both Vegalta and Nagoya at home so it's not a great predictor.
COUNTING CARDS
The team who is in the most trouble in terms of league discipline is Albirex. No fewer than 7 Albirex players are a card away from having a forced vacation. The one in the most trouble happens to be Michel, who is on number 7 after last night's booking.
Omiya has 2 players on 3 cards and one more (Carlinhos) on 6. They aren't in too much trouble yet but all three are central mids. Omiya is one bad ref away from Hayato Hashimoto and Yosuke Kataoka doing a 2007 reunion tour.
Ogihara is the biggest worry for Cerezo. He is one card away from a two game break. Finally Gamba have 5 players on 3 cards so one or more might miss a game.
Having written all of this, everything will look different after next week.
I don't need to get into the history of relegation so I'd rather take a look at some stats and figures.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
With 9 games left to play, there is a clear advantage on paper for one team.
Omiya has already gotten the top three out of the way with two dismal home losses against Sanfrecce and Vegalta and a shock road tie to Urawa. The aggregate strength of schedule for Omiya is a 10.3 (that is, if you made their schedule into one team, they would be in 10th). Omiya's highest placed opponent is Jubilo in the last home game of the season (4th). Over half of their opponents are in the bottom half of the table, including games against 17th place Albirex and 18th place Sapporo.
Gamba is at the other extreme with an agg-strength of 6.2. Only two of Gamba's final 9 opponents are in the bottom half of J1 with Kawasaki being the low man on the totem pole (12th). 5 of the top 6 table sitters await Gamba, including the top 4 and 6th place Kashiwa (last year's winner).
Cerezo sits at 7.7. Like Gamba, the other Osaka squad has games against the top 3. Cerezo does have one game against Omiya awaiting them after a tough stretch of games (Tosu, FC Tokyo, Urawa, Vegalta), but their schedule is not very forgiving.
Albirex has 5 of their last 9 against top half clubs and faces an agg-strength schedule of 9.3. Albirex has the big advantage of facing Consadole at home on the last game of the season (0 points in road games this season). The big game for their survival chances is going to be on the 20th of October, when they venture out to Saitama for a matchup against Omiya.
The one thing that links all 4 teams is a matchup against Shimizu. Depending on what kind of mood S-Pulse is in on a given day could be the x-factor in survival.
HOME/ROAD SCHEDULE
The schedule by itself is a decent indicator of how tough the final stretch will be for each of the 4 relegation battlers, but it doesn't tell the whole story.
Home and road schedules and records probably paint a more accurate picture of what each team has to face in the next 3 months.
For example, Albirex has 5 of their last 9 at home. Sounds good, right? Unfortunately for them, they have the worst home record in the J League (managing just 1 win and 8 points in 12 games). Omiya is the third worst road team in the J League and has 5 of their last 9 on the road (they sit 11th at home with 4 remaining home contests). Gamba (in a slightly misleading stat) sit in 17 place for road record and find themselves playing 6 of their last 9 on the road. Cerezo also has the home field "disadvantage" with 5 of their last 9 at home (they are 16th in the league in home record with a paltry 13 points).
It may be better to look at adjusted agg-strength schedule. Some of the teams don't change all that much. For example...Vegalta Sendai are 3rd best at home and on the road, so there is no huge difference in the quality of play. However, a team like Jubilo shows a distinct imbalance in teerms of form on the road versus home form. They lead the league in home record but sit in 12th on the road. If you have to face Jubilo, you'd much rather do it in your own building.
Here are the home and away tables
Jubilo 27 points plus 14 goal differential
Sagan 27 plus 11
Vegalta 23 plus 15
Sanfrecce 23 plus 8
Urawa 23 plus 7
Nagoya 22 plus 4
Yokohama 21 plus 5
Kashima 20 plus 11
Shimizu 20 plus 3
Vissel 17 plus 1
Omiya 17 minus 5
Gamba 16 plus 1
FC Tokyo 16
Kashiwa 16 minus 1
Kawasaki 15 minus 4
Cerezo 13 minus 2
Consadole 10 minus 13
Albirex 8 minus 11
And the road table
Sanfrecce 24 plus 13
Kashiwa 23 plus 10
Vegalta 23 plus 5
Urawa 22 plus 4
FC Tokyo 21
Kawasaki 19 plus 1
Nagoya 19 minus 1
Shimizu 18 minus 3
Albirex 17 minus 1
Cerezo 16 minus 2
Vissel 16 minus 7
Jubilo 14 plus 1
Yokohama 14 minus 2
Kashima 13 minus 9
Sagan 11 minus 3
Omiya 10 minus 14
Gamba 9 minus 5
Consadole 0 minus 31
Having no knowledge of statistical theory or modeling, I'm not completely sure how to extrapolate this information to schedule strength.
Based on home rank versus road rank, Cerezo actually sees their schedule rank get a little bit harder with a bump from 7.4 to 7.7. Gamba has a bit easier schedule with an agg-strength drop from 6.2 to 7.5. Albirex has a slightly harder rank with a point 3 raise to 9. Omiya benefits the most from the weighted ranking, seeing their agg-strength drop from 10.3 to 12.2. Part of this has to do with Jubilo and Kashima being weak on the road and Kashiwa being average at home.
Maybe the best way to judge the schedules is to put the teams head to head predictions
If everything goes according to plan (it won't) the final records for the teams would look like this
14th Omiya 10 wins 8 ties 16 losses 38 points
15th Cerezo 10 wins 6 ties 18 losses 36 points
16th Albirex 7 wins 8 ties 19 losses 29 points
17th Gamba 7 wins 7 ties 20 losses 28 points
Basically, I took out upsets or other variables and said hey Omiya has 17 points at home and Jubilo has 14 points on the road.....the most likely outcome according to this is Omiya winning. Not real scientific. Consadole is awful this year, but they managed to knock off both Vegalta and Nagoya at home so it's not a great predictor.
COUNTING CARDS
The team who is in the most trouble in terms of league discipline is Albirex. No fewer than 7 Albirex players are a card away from having a forced vacation. The one in the most trouble happens to be Michel, who is on number 7 after last night's booking.
Omiya has 2 players on 3 cards and one more (Carlinhos) on 6. They aren't in too much trouble yet but all three are central mids. Omiya is one bad ref away from Hayato Hashimoto and Yosuke Kataoka doing a 2007 reunion tour.
Ogihara is the biggest worry for Cerezo. He is one card away from a two game break. Finally Gamba have 5 players on 3 cards so one or more might miss a game.
Having written all of this, everything will look different after next week.
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